FC Sion vs FC Thun: FC Thun to win
FC Sion host FC Thun in a goal‑rich Swiss Super League clash. The model rates Thun as the clear favorite with a 52.8% win probability and an 89.4% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Both sides have shown volatile form in their last four league outings, but the fixture promises plenty of scoring chances given the high expected‑goals figures for each club.
Lars's Verdict
Thun’s higher expected goals and the model’s 52.8% win probability give them the edge over Sion in this encounter.
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With FC Sion averaging 2.3 expected goals and FC Thun averaging 3.0, the model gives a 85.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 14.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.3 (FC Sion 2.3 + FC Thun 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 89.4% chance against 10.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FC Sion at 29.7%, the draw at 17.1%, and FC Thun at 52.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-2 at 5.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
FC Sion
Sion’s recent four‑match run (LWWL) features a 3‑0 home win over FC Luzern, a 3‑2 home victory against FC Vaduz, and a 1‑2 home loss to FC Lugano. The wins show Sion can score, but the recent defeat highlights defensive lapses, implying they may struggle to contain Thun’s attack in this match.
FC Thun
Thun’s last four league games (WLLW) include a 3‑1 away win at FC Luzern, a 4‑3 away triumph over FC St. Gallen, and a 0‑6 home loss to BSC Young Boys. The big wins demonstrate Thun’s capacity to breach defenses, while the heavy loss underscores occasional defensive frailty, reinforcing the view that they are likely to outscore Sion.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Thun have won four times, most recently 1‑0 away on 2026‑02‑15, while Sion’s only win was 2‑0 on 2026‑05‑10 – the head‑to‑head trend strongly backs a Thun victory.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | FC Sion 2-0 FC Thun | Super League |
| 15 Feb 2026 | FC Thun 1-0 FC Sion | Super League |
| 1 Nov 2025 | FC Thun 2-1 FC Sion | Super League |
| 25 Oct 2025 | FC Sion 0-1 FC Thun | Super League |
| 22 Apr 2024 | FC Thun 1-0 FC Sion | Challenge League |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won FC Sion vs FC Thun?
FC Sion won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was FC Thun to win.
What was the final score of FC Sion vs FC Thun?
FC Sion 3-2 FC Thun (full time).
When was FC Sion vs FC Thun?
FC Sion played FC Thun on Sun 6 Sep · 15:30 BST in the Swiss Super League at Stade de Tourbillon.
More Swiss Super League This Week
See all Swiss Super League fixtures →The combination of Thun’s superior away expected‑goals rate and the model’s 52.8% win probability makes the away side the logical choice for the match‑result market.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
