FC Thun vs Lausanne: FC Thun to win
FC Thun's 1.35 expected goals dwarf Lausanne's 0.5, and the model backs Thun with a 58% win probability. The under‑2.5 goals market sits at 71.7%, underscoring a low‑scoring outlook.
Both clubs come into the clash with contrasting recent form – Thun have a win and two defeats in their last three league outings, while Lausanne have alternated draws and a loss after a win. The fixture pits Thun's home advantage against a Lausanne side that has struggled to find the net away from the Swiss capital.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Thun's win chance at 58.0%, driven by a superior expected‑goals profile and recent home form that, despite heavy defeats, still produced a recent victory.
Show the maths
With FC Thun averaging 1.35 expected goals and Lausanne averaging 0.5, the model gives a 70.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 29.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 1.9 (FC Thun 1.35 + Lausanne 0.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 71.7% chance against 28.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FC Thun at 58.0%, the draw at 28.3%, and Lausanne at 13.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 21.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
FC Thun
Thun's recent league run includes a 3‑1 away win over FC Luzern, followed by heavy defeats of 0‑6 at home to BSC Young Boys and 2‑4 away to FC Basel 1893. The win shows they can score, while the losses highlight defensive frailties, meaning they are likely to push for a narrow victory at home.
Lausanne
Lausanne have drawn 1‑1 at home with Grasshoppers and lost 0‑1 away to FC Luzern after a 1‑0 away win at FC Basel 1893 and a 2‑2 home draw with BSC Young Boys. Their mixed results and low away scoring (0.5 per game) suggest they will struggle to breach Thun's defence.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head meetings are evenly split: Thun won 5‑1 (Feb 2026) and 2‑1 (Aug 2025), Lausanne won 2‑1 (Nov 2025) and 3‑0 (Jan 2025), with one 2‑2 draw. The parity in past results offers no clear edge beyond the current model metrics.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2026 | FC Thun 5-1 Lausanne | Super League |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Lausanne 2-1 FC Thun | Super League |
| 3 Aug 2025 | FC Thun 2-1 Lausanne | Super League |
| 20 Mar 2025 | Lausanne 2-2 FC Thun | Friendlies Clubs |
| 5 Jan 2025 | Lausanne 3-0 FC Thun | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won FC Thun vs Lausanne?
FC Thun and Lausanne drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was FC Thun to win.
What was the final score of FC Thun vs Lausanne?
FC Thun 0-0 Lausanne (full time).
When was FC Thun vs Lausanne?
FC Thun played Lausanne on Wed 2 Sep · 19:30 BST in the Swiss Super League at Stockhorn Arena.
More Swiss Super League This Week
See all Swiss Super League fixtures →Given the scoring gap and the model’s strong win odds for the hosts, the logical conclusion points to Thun edging the match.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
