Ferencvarosi TC vs Trabzonspor: Ferencvarosi TC to win
Ferencvarosi TC head into the Europa League tie with a 2.0 expected‑goals mark, well above Trabzonspor’s 1.35. The model gives the home side a 52.5% chance of victory – the clearest edge of the three-way split.
Both clubs have met three times in recent years, with a 1‑0 win for Ferencvarosi in August 2026, a 1‑0 win for Trabzonspor in November 2022 and a 3‑2 victory for Ferencvarosi in September 2022. Those results show a tight rivalry, but the current form and scoring rates now tilt the balance toward the Hungarian side.
Robbo's Verdict
Back Ferencvarosi TC to secure three points, as their higher expected‑goals and home form give them the edge over a goalless‑away Trabzonspor.
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With Ferencvarosi TC averaging 2.0 expected goals and Trabzonspor averaging 1.35, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Ferencvarosi TC 2.0 + Trabzonspor 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Ferencvarosi TC at 52.5%, the draw at 21.7%, and Trabzonspor at 25.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi’s recent five‑game stretch reads WDWDW, highlighted by a 2‑1 away win over Twente and a 1‑0 home win against Gornik Zabrze. Those victories, especially the clean sheet at home, demonstrate their ability to both score and keep a clean sheet, reinforcing the expectation of a win in this fixture.
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor’s last five league outings are limited to a single recorded loss, a 0‑1 home defeat to Ferencvarosi. The lack of recent positive results and the absence of any away goals this season suggest a muted attacking threat, supporting the view that they are unlikely to overturn the home side’s advantage.
Head-to-Head
In the three most recent meetings, Ferencvarosi won 1‑0 in August 2026 and 3‑2 in September 2022, while Trabzonspor’s sole win was 1‑0 in November 2022 – the head‑to‑head edge therefore aligns with the model’s Ferencvarosi win prediction.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | Trabzonspor 0-1 Ferencvarosi TC | UEFA Europa League |
| 3 Nov 2022 | Trabzonspor 1-0 Ferencvarosi TC | UEFA Europa League |
| 8 Sep 2022 | Ferencvarosi TC 3-2 Trabzonspor | UEFA Europa League |
Team News (Pregame)
Ferencvarosi TC: No notable injury concerns on record.
Trabzonspor: A. Batagov (Knee Injury), T. Jabol-Folcarelli (Knee Injury), O. Yokuslu (Lacking Match Fitness), E. Muci (Hamstring Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Ferencvarosi TC vs Trabzonspor?
Ferencvarosi TC won 4-0. Our pre-match pick was Ferencvarosi TC to win.
What was the final score of Ferencvarosi TC vs Trabzonspor?
Ferencvarosi TC 4-0 Trabzonspor (full time).
When was Ferencvarosi TC vs Trabzonspor?
Ferencvarosi TC played Trabzonspor on Thu 27 Aug · 19:30 BST in the Europa League at Groupama Arena.
More Europa League This Week
See all Europa League fixtures →With a clear xG advantage and a superior home scoring record, the model’s win probability for Ferencvarosi stands out as the most decisive signal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
