Flamengo vs Corinthians: Both teams to score - Yes
Flamengo enter the clash with a 2.0 expected‑goals mark versus Corinthians' 1.1, while the model gives Flamengo a 58.2% chance to win. Both sides have been inconsistent lately, but the numbers lean heavily toward an open game.
The Rio de Janeiro derby pits the league's most prolific home side against a travelling Corinthians side that has struggled to find the net away from home. With Flamengo averaging 2.0 goals per game at home and conceding only 0.7, the hosts have a clear statistical edge, yet Corinthians' recent form suggests they will be desperate for points.
Bez's Verdict
The model rates the BTTS outcome at 57.7%, driven by Flamengo’s 2.0 xG and Corinthians’ 1.1 xG, making a double‑header the most probable result.
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With Flamengo averaging 2.0 expected goals and Corinthians averaging 1.1, the model gives a 57.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.1 (Flamengo 2.0 + Corinthians 1.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 59.9% chance against 40.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Flamengo at 58.2%, the draw at 21.4%, and Corinthians at 20.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Flamengo
Flamengo’s recent run of five games (WLWWW) features a 5‑1 away win over Mirassol and a 3‑0 home triumph against Botafogo, both showing their capacity to score multiple goals. The lone loss, 1‑2 at Cruzeiro, still saw them score, indicating that even in defeat they breach opposition defenses – a pattern that supports both teams scoring.
Corinthians
Corinthians have managed only one win in five (WLLLL), with the win coming as a 2‑0 away success over RB Bragantino. Their defeats include a 0‑1 home loss to Santos and a 1‑2 away loss to Coritiba, demonstrating that they can still score despite the negative results, which sustains the BTTS outlook.
Head-to-Head
The recent head‑to‑head record shows two wins for Flamengo, two draws and one win for Corinthians, with the latest meeting ending 1‑1, confirming that both sides have been able to find the net in this fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Corinthians 1-1 Flamengo | Serie A |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Flamengo 0-2 Corinthians | Supercopa do Brasil |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Corinthians 1-2 Flamengo | Serie A |
| 27 Apr 2025 | Flamengo 4-0 Corinthians | Serie A |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Corinthians 0-0 Flamengo | Copa Do Brasil |
Team News
Flamengo: Alex Sandro (Calf Injury), Evertton Araujo (Thigh Injury), G. Plata (Inactive), J. Freitas (Inactive)
Corinthians: Andre (Muscle Injury), Andre Ramalho (Inactive), Gabriel Paulista (Yellow Cards), Hugo Souza (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Both teams to score - Yes. The model rates the BTTS outcome at 57.7%, driven by Flamengo’s 2.0 xG and Corinthians’ 1.1 xG, making a double‑header the most probable result.
What does the model give Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Flamengo a 58.2% chance, the draw 21.4%, and Corinthians 20.4% to win.
When is Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Flamengo play Corinthians on Sun 13 Sep · 21:30 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
Are there any injury concerns for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Flamengo: Alex Sandro (Calf Injury), Evertton Araujo (Thigh Injury), G. Plata (Inactive), J. Freitas (Inactive). Corinthians: Andre (Muscle Injury), Andre Ramalho (Inactive), Gabriel Paulista (Yellow Cards), Hugo Souza (Yellow Cards). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the model’s 57.7% probability that both sides will find the net and the contrasting form, a goal on each side is the most logical expectation.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
