Flamengo vs Mirassol: Flamengo draw no bet
Flamengo head into the clash with a 1.9 expected‑goal edge over Mirassol’s 0.9. The model rates a Flamengo win at 60.8% and a draw at 21.9%, making the draw‑no‑bet market the cleanest edge.
Both clubs come into the fixture on contrasting recent form – Flamengo has turned a shaky start into two straight victories, while Mirassol has struggled to find consistency, registering only one win in five.
Bez's Verdict
The model’s 60.8% win probability and 21.9% draw chance combine to give a strong backing for Flamengo’s result while mitigating the small draw risk.
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With Flamengo averaging 1.9 expected goals and Mirassol averaging 0.9, the model gives a 50.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 49.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.8 (Flamengo 1.9 + Mirassol 0.9) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 53.0% chance against 47.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Flamengo at 60.8%, the draw at 21.9%, and Mirassol at 17.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 11.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Flamengo
Flamengo’s recent form shows a D‑D‑W‑W‑L run, highlighted by a 2‑0 home win over Vitoria and a 5‑1 away victory at Mirassol, followed by a 1‑2 loss to Cruzeiro. The two wins demonstrate goal‑scoring potency, reinforcing the model’s high win probability and supporting a draw‑no‑bet pick.
Mirassol
Mirassol’s DWLLD sequence includes a 2‑1 home win over Remo and a 1‑5 home defeat to Flamengo, indicating they can score but also concede heavily. The limited recent success underlines their lower win chance and validates focusing on Flamengo’s result rather than a draw.
Head-to-Head
In the three most recent meetings, Flamengo have won twice (5‑1 and 2‑1) and drawn once (3‑3), confirming a clear advantage that aligns with the draw‑no‑bet recommendation.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2026 | Mirassol 1-5 Flamengo | Serie A |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Mirassol 3-3 Flamengo | Serie A |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Flamengo 2-1 Mirassol | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Flamengo: Alex Sandro (Calf Injury), Everton (Illness), Leo Pereira (Rest), Vitao (Muscle Injury)
Mirassol: Denilson (Yellow Cards), Edson Carioca (Injury), Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury), Negueba (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Flamengo won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Flamengo draw no bet.
What was the final score of Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Flamengo 2-0 Mirassol (full time).
When was Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Flamengo played Mirassol on Wed 2 Sep · 23:30 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the clear statistical advantage and the low probability of a draw, the safest route is to back Flamengo on a draw‑no‑bet basis.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
