Fluminense vs Remo: Fluminense to win
Fluminense's 1.8 expected goals versus Remo's 1.0 set a clear edge, and the model gives them a 56.1% chance to win.
Both sides come in with contrasting rhythms: Fluminense have turned a string of four draws into a 3‑2 home win over Palmeiras, while Remo have split their last five games with two wins, two losses and a draw.
Bez's Verdict
The model rates Fluminense’s win probability at 56.1%, driven by their higher expected goals and recent 3‑2 victory over Palmeiras.
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With Fluminense averaging 1.8 expected goals and Remo averaging 1.0, the model gives a 52.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 47.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.8 (Fluminense 1.8 + Remo 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 53.0% chance against 47.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fluminense at 56.1%, the draw at 23.1%, and Remo at 20.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fluminense
Fluminense’s last five league results are D‑D‑D‑D‑W, highlighted by a 3‑2 home win over Palmeiras and a 1‑1 draw at Botafogo. The win shows they can break a streak of draws with goals, and the narrow draws indicate a low‑scoring tendency that still favours a home side advantage in this fixture.
Remo
Remo’s five-game run reads W‑L‑W‑L‑D, including a 1‑0 home win over Sao Paulo and a 2‑0 home victory against Vitoria. The two wins demonstrate they can score, but the two losses (0‑3 to Corinthians and 1‑2 at Mirassol) reveal defensive frailty, which lowers their chances against a stronger Fluminense attack.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head meeting on 12 Mar 2026 ended 2‑0 to Fluminense, underscoring the home side’s historical edge and aligning with the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | Remo 0-2 Fluminense | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Fluminense: J. Freytes (Ankle Injury), Guilherme Arana (Injury), Ignacio (Yellow Cards), John Kennedy (Knee Injury)
Remo: Marcelinho (Inactive), D. Tchamba (Injury), Joao Lucas (Knee Injury), Mayk (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Fluminense vs Remo?
Fluminense won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Fluminense to win.
What was the final score of Fluminense vs Remo?
Fluminense 2-1 Remo (full time).
When was Fluminense vs Remo?
Fluminense played Remo on Sat 22 Aug · 20:00 BST in the Brasileirão at Estadio Evandro Almeida.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →With a clear xG advantage and recent form tipping in Fluminense’s favor, the safest read is a home win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
