FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt: Eintracht Frankfurt to win
Frankfurt arrive with a 3.0 xG average versus Mainz's 1.35, and the model rates a 70.4% chance of a Frankfurt win. The over‑2.5 goal market is also heavily favoured at 80.5%.
Both sides come into the clash on a single drawn result, but the discrepancy in expected goals tells a very different story. Frankfurt have been scoring three goals per game on the road, while Mainz have failed to find the net at home this season.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 70.4% probability to Frankfurt winning, driven by their superior expected goals and recent form.
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With FSV Mainz 05 averaging 1.35 expected goals and Eintracht Frankfurt averaging 3.0, the model gives a 70.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.3 (FSV Mainz 05 1.35 + Eintracht Frankfurt 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 80.5% chance against 19.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FSV Mainz 05 at 14.3%, the draw at 14.9%, and Eintracht Frankfurt at 70.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 7.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
FSV Mainz 05
Mainz’s only listed recent result is a 0-0 draw against SC Paderborn 07 at home, showing they have yet to score in that appearance. With zero goals for and against at home, the data suggests they lack the firepower needed to challenge Frankfurt’s attack, weakening a Mainz win probability.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Frankfurt’s latest listed result is a 3-3 draw away to Union Berlin, confirming they can both create and concede goals on the road. Scoring three in that match aligns with their 3.0 xG average and indicates a capability to outscore Mainz, supporting a Frankfurt win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Frankfurt have won twice (1-0 in 2025 and 2024) and Mainz have won twice (2-1 in 2026 and 1-3 in 2024), with one draw in 2025. The most recent encounter was a 2-1 win for Mainz, but the overall balance remains even, favouring Frankfurt’s current form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 4 May 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 26 Jan 2024 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr (Foot Injury), E. Martel (Knee Injury), P. Nebel (Muscle Injury), Silas (Broken shinbone)
Eintracht Frankfurt: N. Collins (Back Injury), A. Knauff (Muscle Injury), J. Ngankam (Injury), R. Doan (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Eintracht Frankfurt to win.
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt (full time).
When was FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FSV Mainz 05 played Eintracht Frankfurt on Sat 12 Sep · 14:30 BST in the Bundesliga at Mewa Arena.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →With Frankfurt’s xG advantage and a recent head‑to‑head trend that favours them, the model’s strongest signal is a Frankfurt victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
