Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna: Both teams to score - Yes
Getafe host a potent Deportivo side that averages twice the goals per game on the road. The model rates the match at 57.7% for over 2.5 goals and 54.6% for both teams to score.
Both clubs come into the encounter with contrasting recent form – Getafe have slipped to a single win in four, while Deportivo have rattled off two straight victories. The clash pits Getafe's solid defensive record at home against Deportivo's high‑scoring away outings.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 54.6% probability to both sides scoring, driven by Getafe's 1.0 home xG and Deportivo's 2.0 away xG.
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With Getafe averaging 1.0 expected goals and Deportivo La Coruna averaging 2.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Getafe 1.0 + Deportivo La Coruna 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Getafe at 18.3%, the draw at 21.2%, and Deportivo La Coruna at 60.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Getafe
Getafe's recent five‑game run includes a 1‑0 win over Racing Santander at home and a 1‑1 draw with Celta Vigo, showing they can keep a clean sheet while still scoring. However, the 0‑3 loss at Alaves and 0‑1 defeat at Osasuna demonstrate occasional defensive lapses, suggesting they are vulnerable to a quality away attack – a factor that supports both teams scoring.
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo have recorded back‑to‑back wins, 3‑1 at home versus Valencia and 3‑2 away at Villarreal, evidencing their ability to score multiple goals. Their two recent 1‑1 draws (Elche at home, Malaga away) show they also find the net against tighter defenses, indicating a consistent threat that should translate into a goal against Getafe.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head history favours Getafe with a 3‑0 win in 2018 and a 2‑1 win in 2015, but recent meetings have been tighter, such as Deportivo's 2‑1 victory in 2017, suggesting the goal‑rich trend may continue.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2018 | Getafe 3-0 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 30 Sep 2017 | Deportivo La Coruna 2-1 Getafe | La Liga |
| 1 May 2016 | Deportivo La Coruna 0-2 Getafe | La Liga |
| 30 Dec 2015 | Getafe 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 5 Apr 2015 | Getafe 2-1 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
Team News
Getafe: A. Abqar (Injury), Francho (Injury), Juanmi (Injury), C. Uche (Knee Injury)
Deportivo La Coruna: A. Altimira (Red Card), N. Carrillo (Injury), A. Traore (Muscle Injury), Y. Hernandez (Groin Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Both teams to score - Yes. The model assigns a 54.6% probability to both sides scoring, driven by Getafe's 1.0 home xG and Deportivo's 2.0 away xG.
What does the model give Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Getafe a 18.3% chance, the draw 21.2%, and Deportivo La Coruna 60.5% to win.
When is Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Getafe play Deportivo La Coruna on Sun 13 Sep · 17:30 BST in the La Liga at Coliseum.
Are there any injury concerns for Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Getafe: A. Abqar (Injury), Francho (Injury), Juanmi (Injury), C. Uche (Knee Injury). Deportivo La Coruna: A. Altimira (Red Card), N. Carrillo (Injury), A. Traore (Muscle Injury), Y. Hernandez (Groin Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →Given the goal‑rich profile of both teams and the statistical edge for a high‑scoring affair, the most compelling read points to both sides finding the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
