Gimnasia M. vs Talleres Cordoba: Under 2.5 goals
Gimnasia M. boast a 1.2 xG home average while Talleres sit at 1.1 away, but both defenses concede only 0.8 per game. The model puts the match under 2.5 goals at a 59.6% probability.
Both teams arrive with contrasting recent fortunes: Gimnasia have collected nine points from their last five league outings, whereas Talleres have managed three. Their defensive solidity – each conceding just 0.8 goals per game – sets the stage for a tight contest.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns a 59.6% chance to under 2.5 goals, reinforced by both teams' 0.8 goals‑against averages and a total expected‑goals tally of 2.3.
Show the maths
With Gimnasia M. averaging 1.2 expected goals and Talleres Cordoba averaging 1.1, the model gives a 53.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Gimnasia M. 1.2 + Talleres Cordoba 1.1) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Gimnasia M. at 38.3%, the draw at 28.3%, and Talleres Cordoba at 33.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 13.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Gimnasia M.
Gimnasia’s recent five results (WWLWL) include a 2‑1 home win over Defensa Y Justicia and a 2‑0 home victory against Union Santa Fe, showing they can find the net at home. Their lone recent loss came 0‑1 away to San Lorenzo, indicating a generally solid defensive record, which supports the under‑2.5 pick.
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres’ last five (LLLWL) feature a 4‑0 away win over Platense but also three defeats: 0‑1 at home to Belgrano, 0‑1 away to Newell’s Old Boys, and 0‑3 at home to Lanús. The three clean‑sheet concessions in five matches underline a defensive frailty that keeps total goals low, aligning with the under‑2.5 outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the four most recent meetings, Talleres won 2‑1 in February 2026 and drew 1‑1 in 2017, while Gimnasia secured a 1‑0 win in 2014 and a 2‑1 victory in the same year, indicating a balanced history that does not favour a high‑scoring encounter.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Talleres Cordoba 2-1 Gimnasia M. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 1 Sep 2017 | Talleres Cordoba 1-1 Gimnasia M. | Copa Argentina |
| 7 Dec 2014 | Talleres Cordoba 0-1 Gimnasia M. | Torneo Federal A |
| 4 Dec 2014 | Gimnasia M. 2-1 Talleres Cordoba | Torneo Federal A |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Gimnasia M. vs Talleres Cordoba?
Gimnasia M. won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Gimnasia M. vs Talleres Cordoba?
Gimnasia M. 3-1 Talleres Cordoba (full time).
When was Gimnasia M. vs Talleres Cordoba?
Gimnasia M. played Talleres Cordoba on Tue 18 Aug · 01:30 BST in the Argentine Primera División at Victor Legrotaglie.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →With the combined expected goals at just 2.3 and the model favouring low‑scoring outcomes, the safest read points to fewer than three goals in the encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
