GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom preview by Lars for TerraceBet

Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 2 FT · GKS Katowice 3-1 Radomiak Radom Stadion miejski w Katowicach

GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom: Radomiak Radom to win

Radomiak Radom are priced at 3.9 (25.6% implied) while our model puts their win chance at 37.1%. The gap signals clear value in backing the visitors.

Lars — European Football Writer, Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Lars's Take

Headline Pick

Radomiak Radom to win Lost

Value pick · Undervalued odds

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

With Katowice's home record barren and Radomiak coming off a 2-1 home win, the form lines point in different directions for this Ekstraklasa clash – making it a potential upset on paper.

Lars's Verdict

Value pick

Radomiak Radom to win Lost Slight lean Value pick · Undervalued odds

Back Radomiak at 3.9, where the market undervalues their 37.1% win chance.

Show the maths

The model gives Radomiak a 37.1% chance of victory, derived from their 1.35 expected goals matching Katowice’s. Converting the Betfair price of 3.9 to probability yields 1/3.9 ≈ 25.6%. The difference of roughly 11.5 percentage points (37.1%‑25.6%) is the edge. In betting terms, that translates to expected value of (0.371 × 3.9 − 1) ≈ 0.45 per unit, a clear positive expectation.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With GKS Katowice averaging 1.35 expected goals and Radomiak Radom averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (GKS Katowice 1.35, Radomiak Radom 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (GKS Katowice 1.35 + Radomiak Radom 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (GKS Katowice 1.35 + Radomiak Radom 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has GKS Katowice at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Radomiak Radom at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

GKS Katowice expected goals

1.35

Radomiak Radom expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

GKS Katowice

Katowice’s recent league form is a single loss, 1‑2 away at Wisła Kraków, showing they struggle to score and concede at both ends. At home they have recorded zero goals for and zero against, highlighting a lack of offensive threat that undermines a home win.

Radomiak Radom

Radomiak’s form includes a heavy 2‑6 away loss to Górnik Zabrze but also a 2‑1 home win over Wieczysta Kraków, indicating they can rebound from defensive lapses and still pick up points. Their ability to score multiple goals even in defeat suggests they have the firepower to secure a win on the road.

Head-to-Head

In the last four meetings Katowice have two wins (1‑0 and 3‑2), one draw (1‑1) and one loss (1‑2), a mixed record that neither side can claim dominance, but the market still undervalues Radomiak’s chance.

Date	Result	Competition
8 Mar 2026	Radomiak Radom 0-1 GKS Katowice	Ekstraklasa
29 Aug 2025	GKS Katowice 3-2 Radomiak Radom	Ekstraklasa
6 Dec 2024	Radomiak Radom 1-1 GKS Katowice	Ekstraklasa
20 Jul 2024	GKS Katowice 1-2 Radomiak Radom	Ekstraklasa

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

BBC’s head‑to‑head deep‑dive

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?

GKS Katowice won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Radomiak Radom to win.

What was the final score of GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?

GKS Katowice 3-1 Radomiak Radom (full time).

When was GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?

GKS Katowice played Radomiak Radom on Sun 2 Aug · 19:15 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.

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The market’s 25.6% view of a Radomiak win is well below our model’s 37.1% assessment, delivering a solid value proposition for the away side.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Lars

European Football Writer, TerraceBet — Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga