Gornik Zabrze vs Ferencvarosi TC: Over 2.5 goals
Gornik Zabrze sit on an expected 1.35 goals while Ferencvarosi TC expect 2.0. The model rates the match at a 65% chance of more than 2.5 goals.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent performances – the Polish side have struggled to find the net, whereas the Hungarian outfit have been prolific in their last five league outings.
Robbo's Verdict
With Ferencvarosi averaging two goals away and Zabrze yet to score at home, the model sees a 65% probability of the match exceeding 2.5 goals.
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With Gornik Zabrze averaging 1.35 expected goals and Ferencvarosi TC averaging 2.0, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Gornik Zabrze 1.35 + Ferencvarosi TC 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Gornik Zabrze at 25.8%, the draw at 21.7%, and Ferencvarosi TC at 52.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze’s only listed recent league result is a 0‑1 loss away to Ferencvarosi TC, and their home goals‑for average remains at zero. This lack of scoring at home signals a low probability of them contributing to the goal tally, reinforcing the over‑2.5 expectation.
Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC have compiled a run of five league results: 2‑1 win at Vojvodina, 3‑0 win at home to Vojvodina, 2‑1 win away at Twente, 2‑2 home draw with Twente and a 1‑0 home win over Gornik Zabrze. Scoring in each of those games demonstrates a potent offense, supporting a high total‑goals outcome.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head meeting on 5 August 2026 ended 1‑0 to Ferencvarosi TC, underscoring their ability to keep a clean sheet while scoring, which aligns with the over‑2.5 goal projection given their recent form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC 1-0 Gornik Zabrze | UEFA Europa League |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Gornik Zabrze vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Over 2.5 goals. With Ferencvarosi averaging two goals away and Zabrze yet to score at home, the model sees a 65% probability of the match exceeding 2.5 goals.
What does the model give Gornik Zabrze vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Gornik Zabrze a 25.8% chance, the draw 21.7%, and Ferencvarosi TC 52.5% to win.
When is Gornik Zabrze vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Gornik Zabrze play Ferencvarosi TC on Thu 13 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Europa League at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
More Europa League This Week
See all Europa League fixtures →The combination of a barren home record for Zabrze and a high‑scoring, winning streak for Ferencvarosi points to a goal‑rich encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
