Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc: Gremio to win
Gremio's 1.6 expected goals against Chapecoense's 0.6 set a clear advantage, and the model assigns a 61.7% win probability to the hosts.
Both sides come into the clash with contrasting recent form – Gremio has stumbled in four of its last five outings, while Chapecoense has managed a win in the same span. The disparity in scoring rates and defensive records further tilts the balance toward the home side.
Bez's Verdict
The model rates Gremio's win probability at 61.7% thanks to superior expected goals and a tighter defensive record at home.
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With Gremio averaging 1.6 expected goals and Chapecoense-sc averaging 0.6, the model gives a 64.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.2 (Gremio 1.6 + Chapecoense-sc 0.6) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 62.3% chance against 37.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Gremio at 61.7%, the draw at 24.6%, and Chapecoense-sc at 13.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 17.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Gremio
Gremio's recent five results read LDWLL, highlighted by a 2-1 home win over Sao Paulo and a 1-1 draw with Fluminense at home. The win against a top side shows they can breach defenses, while the three recent losses underscore a need to capitalize now – supporting a win forecast.
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense's form of LDLDW includes a 1-0 home victory over Sao Paulo and a 2-2 away draw with Santos. The win demonstrates they can grind out results, but the surrounding defeats and draws indicate limited offensive firepower, reinforcing the expectation that they will struggle to overturn Gremio's advantage.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent meeting on 2026-07-04, Chapecoense beat Gremio 2-1, but earlier fixtures show Gremio winning 3-1 in 2021 and drawing 1-1 in 2026, suggesting the head‑to‑head is mixed and does not outweigh the current statistical edge for Gremio.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2026 | Gremio 1-2 Chapecoense-sc | Friendlies Clubs |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| 26 Jul 2022 | Chapecoense-sc 0-0 Gremio | Serie B |
| 15 Apr 2022 | Gremio 0-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
| 20 Nov 2021 | Chapecoense-sc 1-3 Gremio | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Gremio: Dodi (Inactive), Gustavo Martins (Injury), J. Nardoni (Inactive), Walter Kannemann (Yellow Cards)
Chapecoense-sc: Y. Bolasie (Injury), Bruno Tubarao (Inactive), Joao Paulo (Health problems), Max Alves (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Gremio won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Gremio to win.
What was the final score of Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense-sc (full time).
When was Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Gremio played Chapecoense-sc on Sun 30 Aug · 22:30 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the clear statistical edge and the model's confidence, backing the home side to secure all three points aligns with the numbers.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
