Gremio vs Palmeiras: Gremio Draw No Bet
Gremio host Palmeiras in a clash where both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.7. The model sees a 38.7% win chance for each side and a 22.6% draw, making a draw‑no‑bet on the home side the safest edge.
Both teams have struggled to convert chances lately – Gremio have lost four of their last five, while Palmeiras have dropped points in three of their previous five. The fixture pits a side that has conceded just 0.9 goals away against a team that lets in 1.2 at home, setting up a tight tactical duel.
Bez's Verdict
Back Gremio on a draw‑no‑bet, where any Gremio win or draw returns a stake, capitalising on the model’s 61.3% chance of them not losing.
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With Gremio averaging 1.7 expected goals and Palmeiras averaging 1.7, the model gives a 66.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 33.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Gremio 1.7 + Palmeiras 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 66.0% chance against 34.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Gremio at 38.7%, the draw at 22.6%, and Palmeiras at 38.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Gremio
Gremio’s last five league results read LLWLL, highlighted by a 3‑1 home victory over Chapecoense‑SC and a 1‑2 home defeat to Vasco da Gama. The lone win shows they can score, yet four losses underline a vulnerability that makes a straight win risky, reinforcing the appeal of a draw‑no‑bet.
Palmeiras
Palmeiras’ form of LWDDW includes a dominant 4‑1 home win over Vasco da Gama and a 2‑0 victory at home against São Paulo, but also a 2‑3 away loss to Fluminense and two draws. Their ability to win at home but inconsistency away supports the notion that they may not secure a clean win in this fixture, again favouring a draw‑no‑bet on Gremio.
Head-to-Head
In the recent head‑to‑head, Palmeiras have edged Gremio 2‑1 in April 2026 and 1‑0 in July 2025, while Gremio’s 3‑2 win in November 2025 shows both sides can prevail, indicating no clear dominance for either club.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| 26 Nov 2025 | Gremio 3-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Palmeiras 1-0 Gremio | Serie A |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Palmeiras 1-0 Gremio | Serie A |
| 4 Jul 2024 | Gremio 2-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Gremio: Dodi (Knee Injury), Marlon (Inactive), Pedro Gabriel (Yellow Cards), F. Amuzu (Inactive)
Palmeiras: A. Barboza (Red Card), Jefte (Knee Injury), Marlon Freitas (Yellow Cards), Paulinho (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Gremio and Palmeiras drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Gremio Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Gremio 0-0 Palmeiras (full time).
When was Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Gremio played Palmeiras on Sun 20 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Brasileirão at Arena do Grêmio.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the balanced win odds but a solid chance of avoiding defeat, the draw‑no‑bet market offers the most logical route to profit from this encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
