Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama: Gremio to win
Gremio's 1.8 expected goals versus Vasco's 0.9 set a clear scoring gap, and the model backs a 58.6% chance of a home win.
Both clubs come into the clash with uneven recent form – Gremio have bounced back with a win after two defeats, while Vasco have managed only one victory in five matches, highlighting a disparity in momentum.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns a 58.6% win probability to Gremio, driven by their superior expected goals and recent uplift in form.
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With Gremio averaging 1.8 expected goals and Vasco DA Gama averaging 0.9, the model gives a 50.5% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.5% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Gremio 1.8 + Vasco DA Gama 0.9) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Gremio at 58.6%, the draw at 22.9%, and Vasco DA Gama at 18.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Gremio
Gremio's last five league results read D, W, L, L, W. They drew 1‑1 with Fluminense at home, then beat Sao Paulo 2‑1, suffered a 0‑3 loss at Atletico‑MG, a 0‑1 defeat at RB Bragantino, and rebounded with a 3‑1 home win over Chapecoense‑sc. The recent win after two defeats shows a resurgence in attacking output, supporting the pick of a home victory.
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco's recent five matches are D, L, L, W, L. They held Bahia to 0‑0 away, then lost 0‑3 at home to Santos, fell 1‑4 away to Palmeiras, earned a 3‑1 home win over Cruzeiro, and were edged 0‑1 away by Fluminense. Only one win in five and a pattern of conceding heavily underline their vulnerability, backing the expectation of a Gremio win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Gremio have won two (2‑0 in 2025 and 1‑0 in 2024) while Vasco have won two (2‑1 in 2026 and 2‑1 in 2024) and one draw (1‑1 in 2025), indicating no clear dominance but recent home success for Gremio aligns with the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| 20 Nov 2025 | Gremio 2-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| 19 Jul 2025 | Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| 28 Jul 2024 | Gremio 1-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Gremio | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Gremio: Dodi (Knee Injury), Marlon (Yellow Cards), J. Cabral (Muscle Injury), Diego Caito (Shoulder Injury)
Vasco DA Gama: Brenner (Knee Injury), Cuiabano (Muscle Injury), Jair (Muscle Injury), Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Gremio to win.
What was the final score of Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Gremio 1-2 Vasco DA Gama (full time).
When was Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Gremio played Vasco DA Gama on Sat 12 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the scoring differential and the recent form trends, the most compelling read is a home victory for Gremio.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
