Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro: Over 2.5 goals
Chivas boast a 2.3 expected‑goals mark at home while Queretaro manage 1.5 away, and the model rates the game at a 73 % chance of more than 2.5 goals.
Both sides arrive with recent runs of form that underline their attacking intent – Chivas have won three of their last five league outings and Queretaro have secured four wins in the same span.
Jonesy's Verdict
The combined expected goals of 3.8 and the model’s 73 % over‑2.5 probability make a goal‑rich game the most probable outcome.
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With Guadalajara Chivas averaging 2.3 expected goals and Club Queretaro averaging 1.5, the model gives a 69.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 30.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.8 (Guadalajara Chivas 2.3 + Club Queretaro 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 73.0% chance against 27.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Guadalajara Chivas at 55.5%, the draw at 19.8%, and Club Queretaro at 24.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 8.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Guadalajara Chivas
Chivas’ recent form of WDWWD includes a 5‑2 home win over Club Tijuana and a 3‑0 away victory against Atletico San Luis, showing their ability to score in bursts. Those results, together with a 2‑2 away draw at Club America, indicate a consistent threat that supports a high‑scoring game.
Club Queretaro
Queretaro’s form of WDLWW features a 3‑2 home win over Tigres UANL and a 1‑0 away triumph against Club Tijuana, demonstrating they can both create and finish chances on the road. Their recent 3‑1 away win over Atlas further underlines their capacity to contribute goals in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Chivas have won three times (2‑1, 2‑0, 2‑0) and Queretaro have won once (1‑0), with a single draw (1‑1); the 2‑1 win aligns with the model’s expectation of multiple goals.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 23 Oct 2025 | Club Queretaro 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Club Queretaro 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro?
Club Queretaro won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro?
Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 Club Queretaro (full time).
When was Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro?
Guadalajara Chivas played Club Queretaro on Sun 27 Sep · 00:07 BST in the Liga MX at Estadio Akron.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →With two strong attacking units and a clear statistical edge toward a high‑scoring affair, the safest read points to the goal line going over.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
