Guimaraes vs Arouca: Guimaraes Draw No Bet
Guimaraes and Arouca both sit on a 1.35 expected‑goals mark, but the model assigns a 25.8% chance of a draw – the lowest of the three outcomes.
Both sides come into the clash with contrasting recent results: Guimaraes have stumbled, while Arouca have mixed form, making the fixture a tight test of consistency.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 25.8% draw chance and equal 1.35 xG for both sides suggest Guimaraes is unlikely to lose, making the draw‑no‑bet market the most secure option.
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With Guimaraes averaging 1.35 expected goals and Arouca averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Guimaraes 1.35 + Arouca 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Guimaraes at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Arouca at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Guimaraes
Guimaraes’ recent form is limited to a single loss, a 0‑2 defeat at Nacional (away), which underscores a barren attack – their home goals‑for average is zero. This scarcity of goals means Guimaraes is unlikely to be outscored, supporting a draw‑no‑bet stance.
Arouca
Arouca’s last five results include a 1‑0 home win over Estrela, a 3‑1 away win at GIL Vicente, and a 3‑1 home win versus Tondela, demonstrating they can score multiple goals on the road. Their ability to net while conceding few reinforces that they are not a clear favorite, aligning with a draw‑no‑bet pick for Guimaraes.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head meeting on 7 February 2026 saw Arouca win 3‑2, while the two prior fixtures were a 1‑1 draw (August 2025) and a 2‑2 draw (January 2025), indicating a balanced rivalry that backs the draw‑no‑bet angle.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Arouca 3-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Guimaraes 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Guimaraes 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| 12 Aug 2024 | Arouca 0-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| 18 May 2024 | Arouca 1-3 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Arouca won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Guimaraes Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Guimaraes 0-1 Arouca (full time).
When was Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Guimaraes played Arouca on Sat 8 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Primeira Liga at TBC.
More Primeira Liga This Week
See all Primeira Liga fixtures →With identical expected goals and a modest draw probability, the safest read is to back Guimaraes on a draw‑no‑bet basis.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
