Guiseley AFC vs Stockton Town: Over 2.5 goals
Guiseley AFC and Stockton Town meet in the FA Cup with both sides posting identical expected goals of 1.35. The model tilts slightly toward a goal‑rich encounter, with over 2.5 goals at 50.6% probability.
Both clubs entered the tie after a single league draw in their last five matches, indicating recent stagnation in form. Their most recent league clash ended 2‑2, so the cup fixture promises a repeat of that balanced storyline.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 50.6% chance to over 2.5 goals, the highest probability among the available markets, making the over the strongest read.
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With Guiseley AFC averaging 1.35 expected goals and Stockton Town averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Guiseley AFC 1.35 + Stockton Town 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Guiseley AFC at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Stockton Town at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Guiseley AFC
Guiseley AFC's recent league form is a single draw (D). In their last five league games they recorded a 2‑2 draw against Stockton Town away, showing they can both score and concede. This recent ability to find the net supports a higher goal tally in the cup tie.
Stockton Town
Stockton Town also sit on a solitary draw (D) in their last five league outings. Their most recent league result was a 2‑2 draw at home versus Guiseley AFC, confirming they are capable of scoring twice against this opponent. This offensive output backs the expectation of multiple goals.
Head-to-Head
In the five latest meetings, the teams have produced two draws (2‑2 and 1‑1) and three wins split between them, indicating that both sides regularly score against each other, which aligns with the over‑2.5 goal outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2026 | Stockton Town 2-2 Guiseley AFC | FA Cup |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Guiseley AFC 3-0 Stockton Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Guiseley AFC 1-1 Stockton Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 16 Sep 2025 | Stockton Town 2-0 Guiseley AFC | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 29 Apr 2025 | Stockton Town 1-0 Guiseley AFC | Non League Premier - Northern - Play-offs |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Guiseley AFC vs Stockton Town?
Guiseley AFC won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Guiseley AFC vs Stockton Town?
Guiseley AFC 2-1 Stockton Town (full time).
When was Guiseley AFC vs Stockton Town?
Guiseley AFC played Stockton Town on Tue 8 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the mirrored attacking metrics and the historical propensity for both teams to find the net, the most logical read is that the game will exceed the 2.5‑goal threshold.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
