Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb: Under 2.5 goals
Both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35, but the model tilts slightly toward a low‑scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals just under a 50‑percent chance.
Hapoel Beer Sheva host Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League, a meeting that pits two evenly matched offensive outputs against each other. With no recent league form supplied, the preview must lean on statistical expectations and head‑to‑head history.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 49.4 % chance to the under, just shy of even, which aligns with the low expected‑goals and the prevalence of 1‑0 or 0‑1 scorelines in the top projections.
Show the maths
With Hapoel Beer Sheva averaging 1.35 expected goals and Dinamo Zagreb averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.35 + Dinamo Zagreb 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Hapoel Beer Sheva at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Dinamo Zagreb at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Head-to-Head
The last two meetings have produced a 2‑2 draw in 2018 and a 5‑0 win for Dinamo Zagreb the same year, showing that while Zagreb can dominate, the most recent clash was a high‑scoring draw, which does not contradict the under‑2.5 outlook given the overall low xG this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2018 | Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb | UEFA Champions League |
| 24 Jul 2018 | Dinamo Zagreb 5-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva | UEFA Champions League |
Team News
Hapoel Beer Sheva: D. Biton (Heart Problems), Joao Victor (Muscle Injury)
Dinamo Zagreb: K. Theophile-Catherine (Inactive), I. Filipovic (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Under 2.5 goals. The model assigns a 49.4 % chance to the under, just shy of even, which aligns with the low expected‑goals and the prevalence of 1‑0 or 0‑1 scorelines in the top projections.
What does the model give Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Hapoel Beer Sheva a 37.1% chance, the draw 25.8%, and Dinamo Zagreb 37.1% to win.
When is Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Hapoel Beer Sheva play Dinamo Zagreb on Wed 16 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Europa League at Superbet Arena - Giulesti.
Are there any injury concerns for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Hapoel Beer Sheva: D. Biton (Heart Problems), Joao Victor (Muscle Injury). Dinamo Zagreb: K. Theophile-Catherine (Inactive), I. Filipovic (Red Card). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Europa League This Week
See all Europa League fixtures →Given the modest xG and the concentration of scoreline odds around a single goal difference, the safest read points to fewer than three goals in the game.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
