Havant & Wville vs Chippenham Town: No clear standout pick
Havant & Wville host Chippenham Town in a FA Cup tie where both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35, and the model sees virtually no edge for either side.
Both clubs come into this clash with a single recent league draw on their records, meaning recent form offers little clue about who will prevail in the cup showdown.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s probabilities are evenly split between the two sides and the draw, offering no decisive advantage for any single market.
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With Havant & Wville averaging 1.35 expected goals and Chippenham Town averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Havant & Wville 1.35 + Chippenham Town 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Havant & Wville at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Chippenham Town at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Havant & Wville
Havant & Wville’s last five league games have produced only a single draw (1‑1 at Chippenham Town, away). That stagnant form suggests they have struggled to generate a decisive result, reinforcing the model’s view that they lack an advantage in this cup tie.
Chippenham Town
Chippenham Town’s recent five‑game stretch also ends with a lone draw (1‑1 at home against Havant & Wville). Their inability to turn draws into wins mirrors the home side’s form, leaving no clear momentum for either team.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, the teams have split results – a 1‑1 draw this season, a 1‑0 win for Chippenham, a 2‑4 loss, another 1‑1 draw, and a 0‑3 win for Havant & Wville – offering no consistent pattern for either side.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2026 | Chippenham Town 1-1 Havant & Wville | FA Cup |
| 27 Jan 2024 | Chippenham Town 1-0 Havant & Wville | National League - South |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Havant & Wville 2-4 Chippenham Town | National League - South |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Havant & Wville 1-1 Chippenham Town | National League - South |
| 15 Nov 2022 | Chippenham Town 0-3 Havant & Wville | National League - South |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Havant & Wville vs Chippenham Town?
Chippenham Town won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was No clear standout pick.
What was the final score of Havant & Wville vs Chippenham Town?
Havant & Wville 1-3 Chippenham Town (full time).
When was Havant & Wville vs Chippenham Town?
Havant & Wville played Chippenham Town on Tue 8 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →With no clear statistical edge and the head‑to‑head record split between wins, draws and a recent 1‑1, the model cannot single out a confident winner.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
