Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica: Heart of Midlothian to win
Heart of Midlothian's 1.35 expected goals edges Benfica's 1.0, and the model gives Hearts a 44.8% chance to win – the clearest edge in this tie.
Both sides arrive in the Europa League after a mixed run of results, but the most recent encounter was a 6-1 drubbing of Hearts by Benfica, highlighting a clear disparity in recent form.
Robbo's Verdict
The model's 44.8% win probability for Hearts, backed by a higher expected goal tally and Benfica's defensive frailties, makes this the most likely outcome.
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With Heart Of Midlothian averaging 1.35 expected goals and Benfica averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Heart Of Midlothian 1.35 + Benfica 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Heart Of Midlothian at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Benfica at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Heart Of Midlothian
Hearts' most recent league result is a 1-6 loss away to Benfica, showing they struggled defensively against a strong opponent. With no positive result in the limited data, the model reduces confidence in a clean sheet, supporting a pick that expects Hearts to score but not dominate.
Benfica
Benfica's last three league outings include a 1-2 loss away to FC St. Gallen, a 5-0 home win over the same side, and a 6-1 home win over Hearts. The two convincing wins demonstrate potent attacking form, while the recent loss indicates occasional vulnerability, reinforcing the view that Hearts can still find the net.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head was a 6-1 win for Benfica on 6 August 2026, a result that underlines Benfica's historical dominance but also shows Hearts can score against them, aligning with a potential Hearts win at a lower margin.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | Benfica 6-1 Heart Of Midlothian | UEFA Europa League |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica?
Heart of Midlothian to win. The model's 44.8% win probability for Hearts, backed by a higher expected goal tally and Benfica's defensive frailties, makes this the most likely outcome.
What does the model give Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Heart Of Midlothian a 44.8% chance, the draw 27.5%, and Benfica 27.7% to win.
When is Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica?
Heart Of Midlothian play Benfica on Thu 13 Aug · 19:45 BST in the Europa League at Tynecastle Park.
More Europa League This Week
See all Europa League fixtures →Given the higher xG, the superior win probability and Benfica's leaky away defence, the logical conclusion is a Hearts victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
