Hebburn Town vs Guiseley AFC: Over 2.5 goals
Guiseley AFC arrive in the FA Cup tie with a 2.0 xG edge, while Hebburn Town sit on a barren 0.0 scoring record at home. The model backs a high‑scoring affair, with a 65% chance of more than 2.5 goals.
The fourth‑round cup clash pits Guiseley’s proven away striking power against Hebburn’s defensive anonymity. Both clubs have a recent history of conceding and scoring, setting the stage for an open game.
Robbo's Verdict
The combined xG of 3.35 and the model’s 65% over‑2.5 probability make a high‑scoring outcome the most likely result.
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With Hebburn Town averaging 1.35 expected goals and Guiseley AFC averaging 2.0, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Hebburn Town 1.35 + Guiseley AFC 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Hebburn Town at 25.8%, the draw at 21.7%, and Guiseley AFC at 52.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Head-to-Head
The recent head‑to‑head record favours Guiseley, with a 4‑0 win in August 2025 and a 2‑0 victory in November 2024, while Hebburn’s lone win was a narrow 1‑0 in December 2025. The dominance of Guiseley in those meetings, especially the 4‑0 result, supports the expectation of multiple goals.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2025 | Hebburn Town 1-0 Guiseley AFC | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 12 Aug 2025 | Guiseley AFC 4-0 Hebburn Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Hebburn Town 0-1 Guiseley AFC | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 16 Nov 2024 | Guiseley AFC 2-0 Hebburn Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Hebburn Town vs Guiseley AFC?
Guiseley AFC won 4-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Hebburn Town vs Guiseley AFC?
Hebburn Town 1-4 Guiseley AFC (full time).
When was Hebburn Town vs Guiseley AFC?
Hebburn Town played Guiseley AFC on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →With the model assigning a 65% probability to the over‑2.5 goal line, the statistical profile points strongly toward a goal‑rich encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
