HNK Hajduk Split vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius: FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win
FK Zalgiris Vilnius holds a 40.9% chance to win against Hajduk Split, outpacing the home side’s 34.2% rating. The model also flags a high 57.5% likelihood of both sides finding the net.
Hajduk Split host Zalgiris Vilnius in the Conference League with both clubs fresh from recent league action. The fixture pits a side that has struggled to score at home against an away team that has been prolific in its own league.
Robbo's Verdict
Zalgiris' superior expected goals and 40.9% win probability make them the clear favorite over Hajduk’s 34.2% rating.
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With HNK Hajduk Split averaging 1.35 expected goals and FK Zalgiris Vilnius averaging 1.5, the model gives a 57.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.9 (HNK Hajduk Split 1.35 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 54.2% chance against 45.8% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has HNK Hajduk Split at 34.2%, the draw at 24.9%, and FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 40.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
HNK Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split’s last five league outings have produced only one win, the most recent being a 5-2 victory over Zalgiris in an away fixture. The lack of further wins in that stretch signals a dip in form that weakens their chances of securing a win here.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Zalgiris Vilnius have recorded two wins, a loss, another win and a loss in their last five games – notably a 3-1 away win over Petrovac and a 2-1 home win over the same side. Those recent successes demonstrate an ability to find the net and bounce back after defeats, supporting a win probability above Hajduk’s.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head meeting on 6 Aug 2026 saw Zalgiris lose 2‑5 at home to Hajduk, a result that favours the home side, but the model still rates Zalgiris higher based on current form and expected goals.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-5 HNK Hajduk Split | UEFA Europa Conference League |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win HNK Hajduk Split vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win. Zalgiris' superior expected goals and 40.9% win probability make them the clear favorite over Hajduk’s 34.2% rating.
What does the model give HNK Hajduk Split vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives HNK Hajduk Split a 34.2% chance, the draw 24.9%, and FK Zalgiris Vilnius 40.9% to win.
When is HNK Hajduk Split vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
HNK Hajduk Split play FK Zalgiris Vilnius on Thu 13 Aug · 20:00 BST in the Conference League at Stadion Poljud.
More Conference League This Week
See all Conference League fixtures →The statistical edge and the higher expected‑goals figure point to Zalgiris being the more likely victor in this encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
