Internacional vs Santos: Santos to win
Internacional's low‑scoring home record meets a Santos side that averages 1.5 goals away. The model backs the visitors with a clear edge in the win probability column.
Both clubs come into the clash with contrasting recent results: Internacional have been stubbornly drawn‑heavy, while Santos have mixed a loss with two wins in their last five league outings. The divergence sets up a classic test of defensive resilience versus attacking intent.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns Santos a 46.4% chance of victory, the highest single‑outcome probability among the three options.
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With Internacional averaging 1.1 expected goals and Santos averaging 1.5, the model gives a 51.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 48.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (Internacional 1.1 + Santos 1.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.8% chance against 48.2% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Internacional at 27.8%, the draw at 25.8%, and Santos at 46.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Internacional
Internacional’s last five league games read D‑D‑D‑D‑L, including a 1‑1 draw at home against Flamengo and a 0‑0 stalemate with Palmeiras away. The string of draws and the recent 2‑3 loss to Bahia show a side struggling to convert chances, which undercuts their ability to secure a win here.
Santos
Santos have posted L‑W‑D‑W in their last five, highlighted by a 3‑0 away triumph over Vasco da Gama and a 1‑0 win at Corinthians. Those results demonstrate a capacity to find the net on the road, reinforcing the model’s view that they are the more likely victors.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings Internacional have won three (including a 2‑1 win on 2026‑03‑19) and drawn two, with Santos yet to record a win, underscoring the visitors’ historical disadvantage.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar 2026 | Santos 1-2 Internacional | Serie A |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Internacional 1-1 Santos | Serie A |
| 24 Jul 2025 | Santos 1-2 Internacional | Serie A |
| 22 Oct 2023 | Internacional 7-1 Santos | Serie A |
| 4 Jun 2023 | Santos 1-1 Internacional | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Internacional: Allex (Inactive), B. Arhin (Hamstring Injury), Bruno Gomes (Yellow Cards), Kayky (Ankle Injury)
Santos: Gabriel Menino (Injury), Joao Schmidt (Yellow Cards), Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury), Lucas Verissimo (Calf Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Internacional vs Santos?
Santos won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Santos to win.
What was the final score of Internacional vs Santos?
Internacional 2-3 Santos (full time).
When was Internacional vs Santos?
Internacional played Santos on Sun 6 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the away side’s superior scoring rate and recent victories, the model’s strongest probability points to an away win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
