Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź: Widzew Łódź to win
Jagiellonia host Widzew Łódź with a modest home scoring edge, but the visitors boast a higher expected goal rate. The model rates Widzew Łódź as the clear favorite for the result.
Both sides arrive after limited recent action – Jagiellonia have three wins and a draw in their last four league outings, while Widzew Łódź have only managed two draws in their last two matches. The contrast in recent momentum sets up a test of Jagiellonia’s home solidity against Widzew’s superior underlying threat.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 44.8% win probability, driven by Widzew’s superior expected goals (1.35 vs 1.0), makes the away side the logical choice.
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With Jagiellonia averaging 1.0 expected goals and Widzew Łódź averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Jagiellonia 1.0 + Widzew Łódź 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Jagiellonia at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Widzew Łódź at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia’s recent run includes a 2-2 draw at GKS Katowice (away) and three consecutive wins – 1-0 vs Zaglebie Lubin (home), 1-0 vs Korona Kielce (home) and 2-1 vs Motor Lublin (away). The trio of wins demonstrates their ability to secure points both at home and on the road, reinforcing confidence in their defensive record of zero goals conceded at home.
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź have only two recent results – a 2-2 draw at home against Motor Lublin and a goalless away draw versus Wisla Plock. Both matches ended without a win, highlighting a lack of recent goal output despite their higher expected goals figure.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Jagiellonia have won four times, including a 3-1 victory on 31 Jan 2026, while Widzew secured only one win (7-1 on 6 Jul 2025). The head‑to‑head trend favours Jagiellonia, but the model still leans toward an away win due to the xG advantage.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Widzew Łódź 1-3 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Jagiellonia 3-2 Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 6 Jul 2025 | Widzew Łódź 7-1 Jagiellonia | Friendlies Clubs |
| 9 Mar 2025 | Widzew Łódź 0-1 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| 1 Sep 2024 | Jagiellonia 1-0 Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Widzew Łódź to win.
What was the final score of Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia 0-2 Widzew Łódź (full time).
When was Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia played Widzew Łódź on Sun 9 Aug · 19:15 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Chorten Arena.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →Given the xG gap and the model’s win probability, the safest read is to back the visitors to take all three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
