Konyaspor vs Rizespor: Konyaspor Draw No Bet
Konyaspor and Rizespor both sit on an identical 1.35 expected‑goals mark, yet the model places their win odds at 37.1 % each and rates a draw at 25.8 %. The clearest edge emerges when you combine Konyaspor’s win and draw chances into a Draw No Bet market.
Both sides arrive on the opening day of the Süper Lig with recent form offering little optimism – Konyaspor have slipped to three straight defeats, while Rizespor’s recent results read loss, win, loss, draw. The fixture also renews a recent rivalry that has swung back and forth over the last year.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Konyaspor a combined win‑and‑draw probability of 62.9 %, far above Rizespor’s 37.1 % chance of outright victory, making the draw‑no‑bet the most secure selection.
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With Konyaspor averaging 1.35 expected goals and Rizespor averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Konyaspor 1.35 + Rizespor 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Konyaspor at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Rizespor at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Konyaspor
Konyaspor’s last five league games have all been losses, highlighted by a 2‑3 away defeat to Rizespor, a 0‑3 home loss to Fenerbahçe and a 1‑2 loss away at Kayserispor. The string of defeats shows a team that struggles to find the net and leaks goals, which supports a conservative draw‑no‑bet rather than betting on a win.
Rizespor
Rizespor’s recent run reads L‑W‑L‑D: a 0‑2 away loss to Kayserispor, a 3‑2 home win over Konyaspor, a 0‑4 away loss to Eyüpspor and a 2‑2 home draw with Beşiktaş. The mix of a narrow win and a heavy loss indicates volatility, reinforcing the appeal of backing Konyaspor’s draw‑no‑bet to avoid a potential upset.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head meetings have been tight, with a 3‑2 Rizespor win on 1 May 2026, a 1‑1 draw on 6 Dec 2025 and a 2‑1 Konyaspor win on 17 July 2025, suggesting neither side dominates – a pattern that aligns with the draw‑no‑bet choice.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | Rizespor 3-2 Konyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Konyaspor 1-1 Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 17 Jul 2025 | Konyaspor 2-1 Rizespor | Friendlies Clubs |
| 10 May 2025 | Konyaspor 2-1 Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Rizespor 1-1 Konyaspor | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Rizespor won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Konyaspor Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Konyaspor 0-1 Rizespor (full time).
When was Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Konyaspor played Rizespor on Sat 15 Aug · 17:00 BST in the Süper Lig at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Given the identical xG figures and the model’s balanced win probabilities, the safest route is to back Konyaspor’s draw‑no‑bet, which effectively backs a win or a draw while shielding against a narrow loss.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
