Kortrijk vs Charleroi: Kortrijk to win
Kortrijk's 1.35 xG edges Charleroi's 1.0, and the model rates a home win at 44.8%. The numbers tip the balance toward a narrow victory for the hosts.
Both sides come into the clash with very different recent trajectories. Kortrijk have slipped to two straight defeats, while Charleroi sit on a four‑match winning streak after a draw.
Lars's Verdict
Back the hosts to secure a narrow victory, leveraging their slight xG edge and home advantage.
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With Kortrijk averaging 1.35 expected goals and Charleroi averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Kortrijk 1.35 + Charleroi 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Kortrijk at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Charleroi at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Kortrijk
Kortrijk’s last two league outings were both 0‑3 defeats – first away at Club Brugge KV and then at home to Antwerp. The back‑to‑back three‑goal concessions underline a frail defence, but the clean‑sheet record at home (zero goals for) suggests they may tighten up and aim for a minimal win.
Charleroi
Charleroi have been unbeaten in five, recording a 1‑1 draw at OH Leuven (home) and four wins: 2‑0 at Standard Liege (away), 3‑1 against OH Leuven (home), 1‑0 at Lommel United (away) and 2‑0 against KV Mechelen (home). This run shows a potent attack and a rock‑solid defence, which makes a clean sheet plausible but also raises the chance of them breaking through.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Charleroi have won four times, including a 0‑1 win on 26 Dec 2024 and a 3‑1 victory on 11 May 2024, while Kortrijk managed a 1‑0 win on 3 Feb 2024. The head‑to‑head favours Charleroi, but the model still rates a Kortrijk win as the most likely single outcome.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec 2024 | Kortrijk 0-1 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Charleroi 1-0 Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 11 May 2024 | Charleroi 3-1 Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Kortrijk 1-2 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Kortrijk 1-0 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Charleroi won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Kortrijk to win.
What was the final score of Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi (full time).
When was Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Kortrijk played Charleroi on Sat 29 Aug · 17:15 BST in the Belgian Pro League at Guldensporen Stadion.
More Belgian Pro League This Week
See all Belgian Pro League fixtures →The model’s 44.8% win probability for Kortrijk, the highest single‑outcome chance, suggests the home side can scrape a 1‑0 result despite recent form.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
