Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem: Under 2.5 goals
Kortrijk's 0.5 xG meets Zulte Waregem's 1.0 xG, but the model gives Zulte Waregem only a 47 % win chance. The low scoring outlook points to an under‑2.5‑goals game.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form: Kortrijk have slipped to three straight defeats, while Zulte Waregem have mixed wins and draws. The clash pits a defensively porous home side against an away outfit that concedes just one goal per game on average.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 80.9 % under‑2.5 probability, driven by both teams’ modest xG, makes this the most probable outcome.
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With Kortrijk averaging 0.5 expected goals and Zulte Waregem averaging 1.0, the model gives a 75.1% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 24.9% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.5 (Kortrijk 0.5 + Zulte Waregem 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 80.9% chance against 19.1% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Kortrijk at 18.1%, the draw at 34.9%, and Zulte Waregem at 47.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 22.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Kortrijk
Kortrijk’s last five league outings are three straight losses, including a 0‑3 defeat at Club Brugge (away) and a 0‑3 loss at home to Antwerp. They also fell 1‑3 at home to Charleroi. This run of heavy defeats and a low scoring rate of 0.5 goals per game underline their limited threat, supporting a low‑goal total for the match.
Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem have recorded two wins and two draws in their last five games: a 2‑1 home win over Genk, a 4‑0 home victory against SK Beveren, and draws of 0‑0 away at Union St. Gilloise and 2‑2 away at Westerlo. Their ability to keep games tight, evident in the clean sheet against Union, aligns with the under‑2.5 expectation.
Head-to-Head
Recent head‑to‑heads show two draws (3‑3 in February 2023 and 2‑2 in September 2021) and two Zulte Waregem wins (1‑3 in October 2022 and 1‑2 in February 2021), suggesting a tendency toward low‑scoring outcomes that backs the under‑2.5 pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb 2023 | Zulte Waregem 3-3 Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 15 Oct 2022 | Kortrijk 1-3 Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Kortrijk 5-0 Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Zulte Waregem 2-2 Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 27 Feb 2021 | Kortrijk 1-2 Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
Kortrijk 0-2 Zulte Waregem (full time).
When was Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
Kortrijk played Zulte Waregem on Sun 6 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Belgian Pro League at Guldensporen Stadion.
More Belgian Pro League This Week
See all Belgian Pro League fixtures →With the expected‑goals gap favouring a low‑scoring affair and the model assigning an 80.9 % probability to under 2.5 goals, the safest read is that the match will stay below the goal line.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
