Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika: Krylia Sovetov to win
Krylia Sovetov's modest edge in expected goals (1.35 vs 1.0) translates into a 44.8% win probability, while Baltika limp in with a 27.7% chance. The model’s numbers favour a home victory.
Both sides arrive from divergent trajectories: Sovetov has steadied after a 4‑1 home win over Akron and a pair of draws, whereas Baltika’s five‑match slide has ended only with a narrow 2‑1 home win over Dynamo.
Lars's Verdict
The home side’s 1.35 expected goals versus Baltika’s 1.0, combined with a 44.8% win probability, makes a Sovetov victory the most likely outcome.
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With Krylia Sovetov averaging 1.35 expected goals and Baltika averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Krylia Sovetov 1.35 + Baltika 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Krylia Sovetov at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Baltika at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Krylia Sovetov
Sovietov’s recent three‑match run reads W‑D‑D, featuring a 4‑1 home win over Akron and a 0‑0 draw away at Dynamo. Those results show they can produce goals and also defend well, reinforcing the expectation of a home win.
Baltika
Baltika have lost four of their last five, including 0‑1 defeats to Rubin and Lokomotiv and a 1‑2 loss at CSKA, before finally beating Dynamo 2‑1 at home. The string of narrow defeats underscores their defensive frailty, which hurts their chances of an away win.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings, Sovetov have lost three times, with the most recent 0‑1 loss on 22 Feb 2026. The head‑to‑head record therefore leans toward Baltika, but the model still favours Sovetov at home.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | Krylia Sovetov 0-1 Baltika | Friendlies Clubs |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Baltika 2-0 Krylia Sovetov | Premier League |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Baltika | Premier League |
| 20 Apr 2024 | Baltika 2-1 Krylya Sovetov | Premier League |
| 19 Sep 2023 | Baltika 1-2 Krylya Sovetov | Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Krylia Sovetov: No notable injury concerns on record.
Baltika: A. Filin (Knee Injury), N. Gassama (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Baltika won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Krylia Sovetov to win.
What was the final score of Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Baltika (full time).
When was Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Krylia Sovetov played Baltika on Sat 8 Aug · 13:30 BST in the Russian Premier League at Samara Arena.
More Russian Premier League This Week
See all Russian Premier League fixtures →Given the xG edge and Sovetov’s more resilient recent displays, the model leans heavily toward a home win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
