Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar: FC Krasnodar to win
Krylia Sovetov's 0.5 expected goals meet Krasnodar's 2.0 expected goals, and the model gives the visitors a 73.1% chance to win.
Both clubs enter the match with contrasting recent form: Sovetov have struggled to find the net, while Krasnodar have collected five straight victories.
Lars's Verdict
With a 73.1% win probability and a superior expected‑goals profile, Krasnodar are the overwhelming favourite.
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With Krylia Sovetov averaging 0.5 expected goals and FC Krasnodar averaging 2.0, the model gives a 66.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 34.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Krylia Sovetov 0.5 + FC Krasnodar 2.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Krylia Sovetov at 8.2%, the draw at 18.7%, and FC Krasnodar at 73.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 16.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Krylia Sovetov
Soviet's last five league results are D 1‑1 at CSKA, L 0‑2 vs Baltika, L 1‑4 against Dinamo Makhachkala, W 3‑0 over Akron, and D 3‑3 with Akhmat. The 0‑2 loss at home and the 1‑4 defeat show a tendency to concede heavily, while the solitary win came away, underscoring why a win is unlikely here.
FC Krasnodar
Krasnodar have won each of their last five matches: W 3‑2 over Fakel, W 2‑1 at Spartak Moscow, W 1‑0 vs Akhmat, W 1‑0 away to Dinamo Makhachkala, and W 1‑0 at home to FC Rostov. The consistency of victories, including a two‑goal margin against Fakel, signals both offensive potency and defensive resilience, supporting a win probability.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent head‑to‑heads, Krasnodar have won three (5‑0, 1‑2, 0‑6), drawn once (1‑1) and lost once (1‑2), indicating a clear historical edge that aligns with the model's win forecast.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov 2025 | FC Krasnodar 5-0 Krylia Sovetov | Premier League |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Krylia Sovetov 1-2 FC Krasnodar | Cup |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Krylia Sovetov 0-6 FC Krasnodar | Premier League |
| 29 Jul 2025 | FC Krasnodar 1-2 Krylia Sovetov | Cup |
| 1 Mar 2025 | FC Krasnodar 1-1 Krylia Sovetov | Premier League |
Team News (Pregame)
Krylia Sovetov: C. Geoffrey (Red Card)
FC Krasnodar: N. Krivtsov (Inactive), J. Cordoba (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was FC Krasnodar to win.
What was the final score of Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Krylia Sovetov 2-2 FC Krasnodar (full time).
When was Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Krylia Sovetov played FC Krasnodar on Sat 5 Sep · 12:00 BST in the Russian Premier League at Samara Arena.
More Russian Premier League This Week
See all Russian Premier League fixtures →The statistical gap in both expected goals and defensive records points to a clear advantage for the visitors.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
