Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva: Rodina Moskva to win
Rodina Moskva arrive as clear favourites, backed by a 1.0 expected‑goals mark versus Krylia Sovetov's 0.5. The model rates a Rodina win at 47.0% and the match under 2.5 goals at 80.9%.
Both sides come in with shaky recent runs – Krylia Sovetov have managed just one win in five, while Rodina have failed to secure back‑to‑back victories. The contrast in their defensive records – 3.0 goals conceded per home game for Sovetov versus 2.3 per away game for Rodina – adds a tactical edge to the visitors.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Rodina a 47.0% chance to win, outstripping Sovetov's 18.1% and reflecting their higher expected‑goals and better recent away results.
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With Krylia Sovetov averaging 0.5 expected goals and Rodina Moskva averaging 1.0, the model gives a 75.1% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 24.9% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.5 (Krylia Sovetov 0.5 + Rodina Moskva 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 80.9% chance against 19.1% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Krylia Sovetov at 18.1%, the draw at 34.9%, and Rodina Moskva at 47.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 22.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov's recent five‑game stretch reads LLWDL, with a 3‑0 away win over Akron the only bright spot. Their last home defeat was a 1‑2 loss to FC Krasnodar, and they earlier suffered a 0‑2 loss at home to Baltika. This limited scoring output and defensive frailty suggest they are unlikely to overturn the odds today.
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva sit at LWDLL in their last five, but the standout result is a 2‑1 away victory over Zenit, showing they can find the net on the road. They also drew 3‑3 at home with Akron, indicating they can score but concede heavily. The mixed form, combined with a higher expected‑goals tally, supports a favorable outcome for them.
Team News (Pregame)
Krylia Sovetov: M. Banjac (Injury), Fernando Costanza (Muscle Injury), C. Geoffrey (Red Card)
Rodina Moskva: R. Fishchenko (Injury), A. Sokol (Injury), A. Gharibyan (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
Krylia Sovetov won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Rodina Moskva to win.
What was the final score of Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Rodina Moskva (full time).
When was Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
Krylia Sovetov played Rodina Moskva on Fri 11 Sep · 16:00 BST in the Russian Premier League at Samara Arena.
More Russian Premier League This Week
See all Russian Premier League fixtures →Given the clear scoring disparity and Rodina's superior away form, the model’s highest confidence sits on a Rodina victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
