KuPS vs Turku PS: KuPS draw no bet
KuPS arrive on a 2.0 expected‑goals baseline while Turku PS languish at 0.6. The model backs KuPS with a 70.5% win chance and a 19.4% draw chance, making a draw‑no‑bet on the home side highly attractive.
Both teams come into this Veikkausliiga clash with contrasting recent form – KuPS have ridden a five‑game winning streak, whereas Turku PS have slipped to just two wins in their last five. The disparity in goal‑scoring rates (2.0 xG for KuPS versus 0.6 xG for Turku) sets the scene for a one‑sided contest.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 70.5% chance of a KuPS win and a 19.4% chance of a draw – together 89.9% – making a draw‑no‑bet on the home side the most secure hedge against the remaining 10% loss probability.
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With KuPS averaging 2.0 expected goals and Turku PS averaging 0.6, the model gives a 61.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 39.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (KuPS 2.0 + Turku PS 0.6) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.9% chance against 48.1% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has KuPS at 70.5%, the draw at 19.4%, and Turku PS at 10.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 14.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
KuPS
KuPS have won each of their last five league games, including a 1‑0 away victory over Gnistan and a 3‑1 home win versus VPS. Those results show a side that can both keep a clean sheet and score, reinforcing the expectation of a win or at least a draw for the home side.
Turku PS
Turku PS’s recent form reads L‑W‑L‑L‑W, highlighted by a 3‑0 home win over AC Oulu and a 3‑0 home win over Mariehamn. The two wins are offset by three defeats, indicating inconsistency that supports the low probability of an away win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings KuPS have won four times, most recently 2‑1 on 2026‑06‑17, showing a clear historical edge that aligns with the model’s win‑draw bias.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Jun 2026 | Turku PS 1-2 KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 4 Nov 2020 | Turku PS 3-2 KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 29 Aug 2020 | KuPS 3-1 Turku PS | Veikkausliiga |
| 21 Oct 2018 | KuPS 2-1 Turku PS | Veikkausliiga |
| 5 Aug 2018 | KuPS 3-2 Turku PS | Veikkausliiga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won KuPS vs Turku PS?
KuPS and Turku PS drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was KuPS draw no bet.
What was the final score of KuPS vs Turku PS?
KuPS 1-1 Turku PS (full time).
When was KuPS vs Turku PS?
KuPS played Turku PS on Sun 9 Aug · 13:00 BST in the Veikkausliiga at Vare Areena.
More Veikkausliiga This Week
See all Veikkausliiga fixtures →Given KuPS’s dominant form and the model’s 89.9% combined win‑or‑draw probability, a draw‑no‑bet on KuPS removes the small draw risk while retaining the overwhelming upside of a home victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
