LASK vs Grazer AK: Grazer AK to win
LASK and Grazer AK sit on identical xG of 1.35, yet the market undervalues Grazer AK's win at 5.4. Our model assigns Grazer AK a 37.1% chance, double the market implied probability.
Both sides enter the clash with a perfect balance on paper – each averaging 1.35 expected goals per game. The fixture gains significance as LASK looks to cement a strong home run while Grazer AK aims to prove they can thrive on the road.
Lars's Verdict
Grazer AK’s win probability of 37.1% dwarfs the market implied 18.5%, indicating a significant value discrepancy in their favor.
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With LASK averaging 1.35 expected goals and Grazer AK averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (LASK 1.35 + Grazer AK 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has LASK at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Grazer AK at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
LASK
LASK have won their last three league outings: 3‑1 against Rapid Vienna, 2‑1 over Red Bull Salzburg, and 3‑0 away at Austria Vienna. These results show a potent attack but also a reliance on clean sheets, which could be tested by Grazer AK’s scoring form, supporting the view that LASK’s dominance is not guaranteed.
Grazer AK
Grazer AK’s recent run includes a 4‑0 home win over WSG Wattens, a 2‑2 draw with SCR Altach, and a 3‑0 away triumph at FC BW Linz. Scoring four, two, and three goals in these matches demonstrates an ability to find the net on the road, bolstering the case for an upset win in Linz.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Grazer AK have won twice (1‑2 and 1‑0) and drawn once (0‑0), with LASK also securing two narrow victories, indicating a tight rivalry that aligns with the model’s balanced win probabilities.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | Grazer AK 1-2 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Lask Linz 1-0 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| 17 May 2025 | Grazer AK 1-0 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Lask Linz 1-0 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Grazer AK 0-0 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won LASK vs Grazer AK?
LASK won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Grazer AK to win.
What was the final score of LASK vs Grazer AK?
LASK 3-0 Grazer AK (full time).
When was LASK vs Grazer AK?
LASK played Grazer AK on Fri 31 Jul · 18:30 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Raiffeisen Arena.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →Given the parity in xG and the market’s thin pricing on Grazer AK, the odds present a clear value opportunity. The model’s 37.1% win probability versus the market’s 18.5% implied chance makes a Grazer AK victory the most compelling bet.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
