Le Havre vs Monaco: Both teams to score – Yes
Le Havre host Monaco in a Ligue 1 clash where both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35, setting the stage for a likely open game.
Both clubs come into the match with mixed recent results – Le Havre have drawn, lost and then won their last three league outings, while Monaco have drawn, won and then slipped two successive defeats. The parity in form and the identical xG values suggest neither side will be defensively dominant.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 54.9% chance that both sides will hit the net, driven by recent high‑scoring games and equal expected‑goals of 1.35 each.
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With Le Havre averaging 1.35 expected goals and Monaco averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Le Havre 1.35 + Monaco 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Le Havre at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Monaco at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Le Havre
Le Havre’s recent form of D‑L‑W includes a 2‑0 away win over Lorient, demonstrating they can score when the opportunity arises, and a 0‑1 home defeat to Marseille, showing vulnerability at the back. This mix of a clean‑sheet win and a narrow loss underlines their capacity to both score and concede, supporting a BTTS outcome.
Monaco
Monaco’s DWLL stretch features a 2‑2 draw away at Toulouse, where both sides scored, and a 4‑5 loss at Strasbourg, a game with nine goals total. These results reveal Monaco’s defensive lapses and continued goal‑scoring threat, reinforcing the expectation that they will find the net while also allowing Le Havre to do the same.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings, three have ended in draws (0‑0, 1‑1, 1‑1) and two were high‑scoring wins for Monaco (3‑1, 3‑1), indicating a history of both sides scoring, especially in the latter fixtures.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Le Havre 0-0 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Monaco 3-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Le Havre 1-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Monaco 3-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 4 Feb 2024 | Monaco 1-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Le Havre vs Monaco?
Monaco won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.
What was the final score of Le Havre vs Monaco?
Le Havre 0-1 Monaco (full time).
When was Le Havre vs Monaco?
Le Havre played Monaco on Sun 23 Aug · 16:15 BST in the Ligue 1 at TBC.
More Ligue 1 This Week
See all Ligue 1 fixtures →With both teams displaying the ability to find the net and to leak goals, the most logical read points to both sides scoring in this encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
