Leamington vs Ilkeston Town preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Leamington 3-1 Ilkeston Town TBC

Leamington vs Ilkeston Town: Both teams to score - No

Leamington and Ilkeston Town sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35, and the model splits the win odds 37.1% each with a 25.8% draw. Both sides show a slight edge in attacking potency, but the BTTS odds tilt towards both finding the net.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - No Lost

Lean · Defensive edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

The FA Cup tie pits two National League North clubs whose recent league form isn’t on record, meaning we must lean on the statistical profile rather than momentum. With both teams averaging the same expected goals, the matchup is poised to be tightly contested.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Both teams to score - No Lost Solid lean Lean · Defensive edge

The model assigns a 45.1% chance of a clean sheet for at least one side, making the 'Both teams to score - No' selection the more defensively sound option.

Show the maths

Both teams sit on an expected‑goals line of 1.35, which the model translates into equal win probabilities of 37.1% and a 25.8% draw chance. The BTTS probability sits at 54.9% for both scoring, leaving a 45.1% chance that one side will fail to find the net. Since the clean‑sheet probability is just under half, the model favours the 'No' outcome for BTTS, especially given the lack of a dominant win probability.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Leamington averaging 1.35 expected goals and Ilkeston Town averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Leamington 1.35, Ilkeston Town 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Leamington 1.35 + Ilkeston Town 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Leamington 1.35 + Ilkeston Town 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Leamington at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Ilkeston Town at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Leamington expected goals

1.35

Ilkeston Town expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Leamington boss fumes over winless run

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Leamington vs Ilkeston Town?

Leamington won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - No.

What was the final score of Leamington vs Ilkeston Town?

Leamington 3-1 Ilkeston Town (full time).

When was Leamington vs Ilkeston Town?

Leamington played Ilkeston Town on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

More FA Cup This Week

See all FA Cup fixtures →

Given the balanced win odds but a strong BTTS signal, the safest read is to expect at least one side to be shut out, especially as the draw probability remains under 30%.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups