Leatherhead vs Hanworth Villa: Hanworth Villa to win – Draw No Bet
Hanworth Villa arrive in the FA Cup with a 6.0 xG average, while Leatherhead sit at 3.0. The model gives Villa a 64.7% chance of victory and a 73% chance on a draw‑no‑bet basis.
Both clubs come into the tie on a two‑game winning streak, but the contrast in scoring potency is stark. Leatherhead’s defence has been airtight at home, yet their attack has produced half the goals Villa have managed on the road.
Robbo's Verdict
Back Villa to win with the safety net of a draw‑no‑bet, as the model backs their victory at 64.7% and the draw at 8.3%, combining for a 73% success rate.
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With Leatherhead averaging 3.0 expected goals and Hanworth Villa averaging 6.0, the model gives a 79.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 20.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 9.0 (Leatherhead 3.0 + Hanworth Villa 6.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 83.8% chance against 16.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Leatherhead at 11.4%, the draw at 8.3%, and Hanworth Villa at 64.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-5 at 3.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Leatherhead
Leatherhead’s recent form includes a 3‑0 home win over Croydon Athletic and a 1‑0 away win at Kingstonian. Those clean‑sheet victories show a solid defence but limited firepower, suggesting they are unlikely to match Villa’s six‑goal threat in this fixture.
Hanworth Villa
Hanworth Villa have ripped apart opponents with a 4‑1 home win over Whitstable Town and a 6‑0 away win at Pagham. Scoring six without reply highlights their ability to dominate, reinforcing the model’s high win probability for this match.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings, Leatherhead have won three (including 2‑1 victories on 2025‑10‑18 and 2025‑04‑12) while Villa have one win (2‑1 on 2024‑04‑20) and one draw (3‑3 on 2026‑02‑14), a head‑to‑head record that still favors Leatherhead but is outweighed by Villa’s current form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Hanworth Villa 3-3 Leatherhead | Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Leatherhead 2-1 Hanworth Villa | Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Leatherhead 2-1 Hanworth Villa | Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central |
| 18 Mar 2025 | Hanworth Villa 0-1 Leatherhead | Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central |
| 20 Apr 2024 | Hanworth Villa 2-1 Leatherhead | Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Leatherhead vs Hanworth Villa?
Hanworth Villa to win – Draw No Bet. Back Villa to win with the safety net of a draw‑no‑bet, as the model backs their victory at 64.7% and the draw at 8.3%, combining for a 73% success rate.
What does the model give Leatherhead vs Hanworth Villa?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Leatherhead a 11.4% chance, the draw 8.3%, and Hanworth Villa 64.7% to win.
When is Leatherhead vs Hanworth Villa?
Leatherhead play Hanworth Villa on Sat 3 Oct · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the clear xG disparity and Villa’s recent six‑goal away display, the safest reading is to back Hanworth Villa on a draw‑no‑bet basis.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
