Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom: Lech Poznan to win
Lech Poznan’s 1.5 xG versus Radomiak’s 0.3 xG and a 68% win probability set the stage for a decisive home victory. Recent form and head‑to‑head dominance reinforce the odds in Poznan’s favour.
Both teams arrive with contrasting recent runs – Lech Poznan have surged with four wins in five, while Radomiak Radom have struggled to find consistency, posting only one win in their last five games. The clash pits Poznan’s potent attack against a side that has conceded heavily on the road.
Lars's Verdict
Lech Poznan’s superior xG (1.5 vs 0.3) and a 68% win probability make a home win the most probable outcome.
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With Lech Poznan averaging 1.5 expected goals and Radomiak Radom averaging 0.3, the model gives a 79.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 20.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.8 (Lech Poznan 1.5 + Radomiak Radom 0.3) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 73.1% chance against 26.9% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Lech Poznan at 68.0%, the draw at 24.8%, and Radomiak Radom at 7.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 24.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan have compiled four wins and one loss in their last five league games, highlighted by a 3‑0 home win over Piast Gliwice and a 2‑1 home victory against Jagiellonia. These results demonstrate both scoring depth and defensive solidity, reinforcing the expectation of a clean sheet and multiple goals in this fixture.
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom’s recent form shows one win, two draws, and two losses, including a 2‑1 home win over Cracovia Krakow but also a 0‑5 away defeat to Legia Warszawa. The heavy loss and overall low scoring indicate limited offensive firepower and defensive vulnerability, supporting a low probability of scoring against Poznan.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Lech Poznan have won three, drawn two, and never lost, including a 3‑1 away win on 2026‑05‑16 and a 4‑1 home win on 2025‑11‑23, underscoring their superiority in this fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Lech Poznan 4-1 Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 27 Apr 2025 | Radomiak Radom 2-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Lech Poznan 2-1 Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Radomiak Radom 2-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Lech Poznan: A. Douglas (Inactive), A. Gholizadeh (Knee Injury), D. Hakans (Inactive), A. Kozubal (Inactive)
Radomiak Radom: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan won 5-1. Our pre-match pick was Lech Poznan to win.
What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak Radom (full time).
When was Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan played Radomiak Radom on Sun 20 Sep · 19:15 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Stadion Poznan.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →Combining a high expected‑goals tally, a solid defensive record at home, and a head‑to‑head record that favours Lech, the model’s 68% win probability translates into a clear match‑result pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
