Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź: Legia Warszawa to win
Legia Warszawa's 3.0 expected goals at home clash with Widzew Łódź's 1.7 away scoring rate, while the model rates a Legia win at 63.7%. The numbers point to a clear advantage for the hosts.
Both sides come into the match with contrasting recent form – Legia have collected three points from their last five league outings, while Widzew have only managed two. Their head‑to‑head record favours Legia, who have won four of the last five meetings.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 63.7% chance to a Legia win, outpacing both the draw (16.1%) and an away victory (19.7%).
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With Legia Warszawa averaging 3.0 expected goals and Widzew Łódź averaging 1.7, the model gives a 77.3% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 22.7% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.7 (Legia Warszawa 3.0 + Widzew Łódź 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 84.4% chance against 15.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Legia Warszawa at 63.7%, the draw at 16.1%, and Widzew Łódź at 19.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 7.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Legia Warszawa
Legia's recent five‑game stretch reads D‑W‑D‑D‑W, highlighted by a 5‑0 home thrashing of Radomiak Radom and a 3‑2 away win at Motor Lublin. Those two convincing victories illustrate their ability to score heavily and protect a lead, bolstering confidence in a win this weekend.
Widzew Łódź
Widzew's form of W‑L‑D‑L‑D includes a 2‑0 away win over Jagiellonia and a 0‑0 home draw with Radomiak Radom. While the win shows they can keep a clean sheet, the two recent defeats indicate inconsistency, limiting their threat against a strong Legia side.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Legia have won four, including a recent 1‑0 win on 1 May 2026, confirming a clear historical edge that aligns with the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | Legia Warszawa 1-0 Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Widzew Łódź 1-1 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| 15 May 2025 | Widzew Łódź 0-2 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| 3 Nov 2024 | Legia Warszawa 2-1 Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 12 Jul 2024 | Legia Warszawa 2-1 Widzew Łódź | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Legia Warszawa to win. The model assigns a 63.7% chance to a Legia win, outpacing both the draw (16.1%) and an away victory (19.7%).
What does the model give Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Legia Warszawa a 63.7% chance, the draw 16.1%, and Widzew Łódź 19.7% to win.
When is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Legia Warszawa play Widzew Łódź on Sun 13 Sep · 16:30 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →Given the scoring disparity and Legia's superior win probability, the logical forecast is a Legia victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
