Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus: Levadiakos to win
Levadiakos register a 1.35 expected‑goals mark at home while Olympiakos sit at 1.0 on the road. Our model backs the home side at 44.8% to win – the clearest edge of the three outcomes.
Both clubs enter the clash with contrasting recent runs: Levadiakos have endured four defeats and a draw in their last five, whereas Olympiakos have collected two wins, a draw and a loss. The encounter follows a 0‑0 stalemate in February, adding a fresh chapter to a head‑to‑head that has favoured the visitors historically.
Lars's Verdict
The home side’s 1.35 xG versus Olympiakos’ 1.0 away xG, together with Levadiakos’ recent 0‑0 draw, underpin a realistic chance of a 1‑0 win.
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With Levadiakos averaging 1.35 expected goals and Olympiakos Piraeus averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Levadiakos 1.35 + Olympiakos Piraeus 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Levadiakos at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Olympiakos Piraeus at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Levadiakos
Levadiakos have lost four straight matches – 0‑3 at Aris, 0‑4 at PAOK, 0‑2 to Panathinaikos at home and 0‑2 to Panetolikos at home – before salvaging a 0‑0 draw away at Kifisia. The string of clean sheets, albeit without scoring, shows a defensive focus that could keep the game tight and support a narrow home win.
Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos have recorded two wins (1‑0 at Atromitos, 1‑0 away at Asteras Tripolis), a 1‑1 draw away at Volos and a 0‑1 home loss to OFI. While their away form includes a win and a draw, the recent home defeat underlines a slight vulnerability that Levadiakos can exploit at home.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Olympiakos have won three (3‑2, 1‑0, 6‑0) and drawn two (0‑0, 2‑2). The most recent 0‑0 draw indicates that a clean‑sheet result is possible, lending weight to a narrow Levadiakos win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Levadiakos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3-2 Levadiakos | Super League 1 |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Levadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2-2 Levadiakos | Super League 1 |
| 5 Mar 2023 | Olympiakos Piraeus 6-0 Levadiakos | Super League 1 |
Team News (Pregame)
Levadiakos: No notable injury concerns on record.
Olympiakos Piraeus: R. Cabella (Off the roster), A. El Kaabi (Broken Leg), K. Fortounis (Red Card), D. Garcia (Off the roster)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Levadiakos to win.
What was the final score of Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Levadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus (full time).
When was Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Levadiakos played Olympiakos Piraeus on Sun 20 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Super League Greece at Levadia Municipal Stadium.
More Super League Greece This Week
See all Super League Greece fixtures →All signs point to a low‑scoring contest where Levadiakos’ home advantage and the modest xG differential tilt the odds toward a narrow victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
