Levante vs Athletic Club: Both teams to score - Yes
Levante are firing on all cylinders with 5.0 expected goals per match, while Athletic Club limp along at just 1.0. The model gives Levante an 86.6% chance to win and a 58.5% probability both sides will hit the net.
Both clubs enter this La Liga clash with contrasting recent form. Levante have scraped a draw and a win from their last five league outings, whereas Athletic Club have turned two losses into a pair of convincing victories.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 58.5% chance of both sides scoring, reflecting Levante’s high scoring expectancy and Athletic’s recent goal‑scoring burst.
Show the maths
With Levante averaging 5.0 expected goals and Athletic Club averaging 1.0, the model gives a 58.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 41.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 6.0 (Levante 5.0 + Athletic Club 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 87.0% chance against 13.0% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Levante at 86.6%, the draw at 4.2%, and Athletic Club at 2.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 4-0 at 6.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Levante
Levante’s recent five‑match run reads L‑D‑W‑D, highlighted by a 5‑2 home win over Real Betis and a 0‑0 draw at Malaga. The big win against Betis shows they can explode offensively, while the clean sheet at Malaga underlines defensive solidity – both factors support the expectation of them scoring and keeping the match tight enough for Athletic to reply.
Athletic Club
Athletic Club’s five‑match stretch is L‑L‑W‑W, featuring a 2‑0 away win at Celta Vigo and a 3‑0 home victory over Atletico Madrid. Those back‑to‑back wins demonstrate a revived attack that has found the net in successive games, which feeds directly into the BTTS probability despite their overall lower expected goals.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Athletic Club have won four (4‑2, 0‑2, 3‑1, 1‑2) and Levante have only drawn once 0‑0, indicating Athletic’s tendency to score against Levante – a trend that aligns with the BTTS market.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Athletic Club 4-2 Levante | La Liga |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Levante 0-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 7 Mar 2022 | Athletic Club 3-1 Levante | La Liga |
| 19 Nov 2021 | Levante 0-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 4 Mar 2021 | Levante 1-2 Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
Team News
Levante: K. Etta Eyong (Injury), A. Primo (Shoulder Injury), R. Brugue (Red Card)
Athletic Club: P. Canales (Muscle Injury), A. Djalo (Coach's decision), U. Egiluz (Knee Injury), G. Guruzeta (Hamstring Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Levante vs Athletic Club?
Both teams to score - Yes. The model assigns a 58.5% chance of both sides scoring, reflecting Levante’s high scoring expectancy and Athletic’s recent goal‑scoring burst.
What does the model give Levante vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Levante a 86.6% chance, the draw 4.2%, and Athletic Club 2.3% to win.
When is Levante vs Athletic Club?
Levante play Athletic Club on Wed 16 Sep · 20:30 BST in the La Liga at TBC.
Are there any injury concerns for Levante vs Athletic Club?
Levante: K. Etta Eyong (Injury), A. Primo (Shoulder Injury), R. Brugue (Red Card). Athletic Club: P. Canales (Muscle Injury), A. Djalo (Coach's decision), U. Egiluz (Knee Injury), G. Guruzeta (Hamstring Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →Given the stark xG disparity and Levante’s home potency, the model leans heavily toward a Levante win, yet the BTTS market still looks attractive as both sides have shown they can find the net recently.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
