Lewes vs Cray Wanderers preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Lewes 2-2 Cray Wanderers TBC

Lewes vs Cray Wanderers: Both teams to score - Yes

Lewes host Cray Wanderers in the FA Cup with both sides averaging 1.35 expected goals. The model sees a 54.9% chance both teams will hit the net.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Won

Solid · Statistical edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

The tie pits two non‑league sides whose scoring records are identical on paper, making the goal‑mouth the decisive factor. Neither side carries a clear home‑away advantage in the data.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Won Solid lean Solid · Statistical edge

The model assigns a 54.9% probability to both sides scoring, driven by identical expected goals and a recent trend of open matches.

Show the maths

Both Lewing and Cray Wanderers have an expected goal value of 1.35, which the model translates into a combined scoring likelihood above 50%. The BTTS probability of 54.9% reflects this balance, as each side is expected to score roughly once per game. Because the model’s match‑result split is even (37.1% each), the goal‑scoring market offers the clearest advantage. Hence the pick leans on the BTTS probability rather than the neutral win odds.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Lewes averaging 1.35 expected goals and Cray Wanderers averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Lewes 1.35, Cray Wanderers 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Lewes 1.35 + Cray Wanderers 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Lewes 1.35 + Cray Wanderers 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Lewes at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Cray Wanderers at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Lewes expected goals

1.35

Cray Wanderers expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

In the last five meetings, four matches produced three or more goals (3-0, 2-2, 4-3, 1-3), showing a clear propensity for both sides to score, which aligns with the BTTS outlook.

Date	Result	Competition
11 Apr 2026	Cray Wanderers 3-0 Lewes	Non League Premier - Isthmian
6 Sep 2025	Lewes 2-2 Cray Wanderers	Non League Premier - Isthmian
26 Apr 2025	Lewes 4-3 Cray Wanderers	Non League Premier - Isthmian
24 Aug 2024	Cray Wanderers 1-3 Lewes	Non League Premier - Isthmian
6 Jan 2024	Cray Wanderers 1-1 Lewes	Non League Premier - Isthmian

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

First‑qualifying round showdown set

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Lewes vs Cray Wanderers?

Lewes and Cray Wanderers drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of Lewes vs Cray Wanderers?

Lewes 2-2 Cray Wanderers (full time).

When was Lewes vs Cray Wanderers?

Lewes played Cray Wanderers on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

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Given the even scoring expectations and the history of high‑scoring encounters, the safest read is that both teams will find the net.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups