Lommel United vs Charleroi: Charleroi Draw No Bet
Lommel United and Charleroi both sit on a 1.35 expected‑goals mark, making the match a statistical dead‑heat. The model splits the win odds evenly at 37.1 % each with a 25.8 % chance of a draw.
Both sides come into the game on contrasting streaks – Lommel have slipped to two draws after three wins, while Charleroi have rallied with three wins out of five after an early loss. The recent form suggests Lommel may lack cutting edge, whereas Charleroi have shown they can finish matches strongly.
Lars's Verdict
With both teams equally likely to win and a quarter‑chance of a draw, removing the draw leaves Charleroi at a flat 50 % chance of success.
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With Lommel United averaging 1.35 expected goals and Charleroi averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Lommel United 1.35 + Charleroi 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Lommel United at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Charleroi at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Lommel United
Lommel’s recent league run includes a 3‑1 home victory over Beerschot VA and a 1‑1 away draw with St. Truiden, showing they can find the net but also struggle to keep clean sheets. Those results translate to a modest goal threat and a tendency toward draws, which dampens the appeal of a straight win pick for them.
Charleroi
Charleroi have posted a 2‑0 away win at Standard Liege and a 0‑1 home loss to KVC Westerlo, highlighting a capacity to dominate opponents but also a vulnerability at home. The mix of a solid away performance and a recent home setback suggests they are well‑placed to avoid a draw while still being capable of securing the win.
Head-to-Head
The only recent head‑to‑head meeting was a 0‑0 stalemate on 27 Oct 2021, which aligns with the model’s 25.8 % draw probability and supports the view that a draw remains a realistic outcome.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2021 | Charleroi 0-0 Lommel United | Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Charleroi won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Charleroi Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Lommel United 0-1 Charleroi (full time).
When was Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Lommel United played Charleroi on Sun 16 Aug · 18:15 BST in the Belgian Pro League at Soevereinstadion.
More Belgian Pro League This Week
See all Belgian Pro League fixtures →Given the equal win odds and a relatively high draw chance, eliminating the draw improves Charleroi’s chance to a clean 50 % when betting on a draw‑no‑bet market.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
