Lyngby vs Odense: Lyngby to win
Lyngby enter the clash with a 1.5 expected‑goals mark versus Odense’s 0.7, and the model backs the home side at 56.5% to win. Recent form and head‑to‑head results reinforce that advantage.
Both clubs come in from contrasting runs – Lyngby have struggled to pick up points, while Odense have mixed results on the road. The fixture pits Lyngby’s modest home scoring rate against Odense’s sub‑par away threat, setting up a clear statistical edge.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Lyngby a 56.5% chance to win, driven by superior expected goals and recent head‑to‑head success.
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With Lyngby averaging 1.5 expected goals and Odense averaging 0.7, the model gives a 60.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 39.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.2 (Lyngby 1.5 + Odense 0.7) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 62.3% chance against 37.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Lyngby at 56.5%, the draw at 26.1%, and Odense at 17.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 16.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Lyngby
Lyngby’s last five league outings read LDLDL, highlighted by a 2‑3 loss at FC Copenhagen and a 0‑2 defeat at Randers FC. Both matches showed they conceded twice while only managing a single goal in the 1‑1 draw with FC Midtjylland, underscoring a thin margin that still favours them to edge a close game here.
Odense
Odense’s recent run of LWLLD includes a 1‑0 win over Sonderjyske at home but a 0‑1 loss at Viborg and a 0‑1 defeat at Silkeborg away, indicating they struggle to score on the road. Their solitary away goal in five matches aligns with the low 0.7 expected‑goals figure, suggesting limited offensive threat against Lyngby.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Lyngby have two wins (2‑1 on 10 May and 2‑1 on 2 Oct), two draws (0‑0 on 5 Apr and 2‑2 on 4 Nov), and one loss (0‑4 on 21 May), a record that tilts slightly in Lyngby’s favour and supports the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2024 | Odense 1-2 Lyngby | Superliga |
| 5 Apr 2024 | Lyngby 0-0 Odense | Superliga |
| 4 Nov 2023 | Lyngby 2-2 Odense | Superliga |
| 2 Oct 2023 | Odense 1-2 Lyngby | Superliga |
| 21 May 2023 | Lyngby 0-4 Odense | Superliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Lyngby: O. Snorre (Knee Injury)
Odense: W. Martin (Injury), J. Niemiec (Inactive), A. Suhonen (Inactive), F. Arp (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Lyngby vs Odense?
Lyngby and Odense drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Lyngby to win.
What was the final score of Lyngby vs Odense?
Lyngby 1-1 Odense (full time).
When was Lyngby vs Odense?
Lyngby played Odense on Sun 30 Aug · 13:00 BST in the Danish Superliga at Lyngby Stadion.
More Danish Superliga This Week
See all Danish Superliga fixtures →With a solid scoring edge, a favourable recent direct encounter, and a model win probability well above the draw and away chances, the logical read points to a Lyngby victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
