Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round FT · Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-3 CSKA Sofia Bloomfield Stadium

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia: Both teams to score – No

Maccabi Tel Aviv and CSKA Sofia head into their Europa League opener with identical expected goals of 1.0, but the model sees a clear advantage for a clean‑sheet scenario.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe & UEFA competitions

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score – No Won

Lean · Defensive edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — No Won

60.0% model probability

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Lost

67.7% model probability

Both sides have arrived in Europe with recent league form that suggests defensive solidity – Maccabi have won their last two games, while CSKA have recorded two wins and two draws in their last four matches.

Robbo's Verdict

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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia

0 - 0

Lean

Both teams to score – No Won Strong lean Lean · Defensive edge

The model assigns a 60% probability to both teams not scoring, reflecting the strong defensive trends and modest goal expectations.

Show the maths

Both teams have an expected‑goals value of 1.0, meaning the model predicts a total of roughly two goals combined. However, Maccabi’s home goals‑against average of 0.0 and CSKA’s away goals‑against average of 0.5 lower the likelihood of both sides finding the net. This defensive weighting translates into a 60% chance of a ‘no‑BTTS’ result, while the opposite outcome sits at 40%.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — No (one side kept off the scoresheet) Won 60.0% model probability

With Maccabi Tel Aviv averaging 1.0 expected goals and CSKA Sofia averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.0, CSKA Sofia 1.0) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 40.0% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 60.0% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Lost 67.7% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.0 + CSKA Sofia 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.0 + CSKA Sofia 1.0 = 2.0 combined): 32.3% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 67.7% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Maccabi Tel Aviv at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and CSKA Sofia at 34.6% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Maccabi Tel Aviv expected goals

1.0

CSKA Sofia expected goals

1.0

Model BTTS probability

60.0%

Most likely scorelines

10-0

13.5%

20-1

13.5%

31-0

13.5%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s recent league run reads WW, with a 5‑0 away win and a 1‑0 home win over Sheriff Tiraspol. Those clean sheets underline a defensive record that supports a no‑BTTS outcome here.

CSKA Sofia

WWDD

CSKA Sofia’s last five games are WWDD, featuring a 3‑2 home win and a 2‑1 away win against Derry City, then two 0‑0 draws with Qarabag. The draws reinforce their ability to keep games tight and limit opponent scoring, bolstering the ‘no‑BTTS’ case.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

BBC’s head‑to‑head breakdown

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia?

CSKA Sofia won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – No.

What was the final score of Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia?

Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-3 CSKA Sofia (full time).

When was Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia?

Maccabi Tel Aviv played CSKA Sofia on Thu 6 Aug · 17:00 BST in the Europa League at Bloomfield Stadium.

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Given the defensive credentials and the balanced attacking output, the most likely outcome is a match where only one side finds the net.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe & UEFA competitions