Maidstone Utd vs Cray Wanderers: Over 2.5 goals
The FA Cup tie pits a low‑scoring Maidstone United against a 2‑goal‑a‑game Cray Wanderers, and the model’s 65% over‑2.5‑goals probability makes the goal‑fest the clear angle.
Maidstone United arrive having recorded only a single league result – a 1‑1 draw against Cray Wanderers – while Cray Wanderers sit on a D‑W‑D sequence in their last three league outings. Both clubs have met recently, with a 1‑1 draw last season and a 2‑0 win for Cray the year before, suggesting the fixture could be open.
Robbo's Verdict
With a combined expected‑goals tally of 3.35 and a 65% model probability for over 2.5 goals, the match is primed for a goal‑rich outcome.
Show the maths
With Maidstone Utd averaging 1.35 expected goals and Cray Wanderers averaging 2.0, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Maidstone Utd 1.35 + Cray Wanderers 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Maidstone Utd at 25.8%, the draw at 21.7%, and Cray Wanderers at 52.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Maidstone Utd
Maidstone United’s recent league record consists of a single 1‑1 draw against Cray Wanderers (away). That result shows they can hold a clean sheet but also that they struggle to score, which aligns with the model’s modest 1.35 expected‑goals figure and supports a higher‑scoring game driven by the opposition.
Cray Wanderers
Cray Wanderers have recorded a draw (2‑2 vs Lewes away), a win (1‑0 vs Lewes at home), and another draw (1‑1 vs Maidstone United at home) in their last three league games. The 2‑2 draw demonstrates their ability to produce multiple goals, bolstering the over‑2.5 outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the last two meetings, Cray Wanderers drew 1‑1 and then won 2‑0, indicating they can both score and keep a clean sheet against Maidstone, which underpins the expectation of more than two goals this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Cray Wanderers 1-1 Maidstone Utd | FA Cup |
| 2 Aug 2025 | Cray Wanderers 2-0 Maidstone Utd | Friendlies Clubs |
| 24 Jul 2022 | Cray Wanderers None-None Maidstone Utd | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Maidstone Utd vs Cray Wanderers?
Cray Wanderers won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Maidstone Utd vs Cray Wanderers?
Maidstone Utd 0-2 Cray Wanderers (full time).
When was Maidstone Utd vs Cray Wanderers?
Maidstone Utd played Cray Wanderers on Tue 22 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →All signs point to a match with more than two goals, making the over‑2.5‑goals market the most compelling pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
