Malaga vs Levante: Levante to win
Malaga host Levante in a La Liga clash where the models see the visitors as clear favourites. Levante’s higher expected goals and better recent form underpin a solid win prospect.
Both sides come in with limited firepower – Malaga have failed to score in two of their last three league outings, while Levante have struggled to find the net away, managing just one goal in three recent away fixtures. The match therefore pivots on who can convert the few chances they create.
Robbo's Verdict
Levante’s higher away expected goals (1.35 vs 1.0) and a 44.8% win probability make them the clear favourite to take all three points.
Show the maths
With Malaga averaging 1.0 expected goals and Levante averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Malaga 1.0 + Levante 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Malaga at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Levante at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Malaga
Malaga have lost 0‑2 at Atletico Madrid away, drawn 1‑1 with Deportivo La Coruna at home, and then suffered a 0‑4 defeat to Real Madrid away. Two defeats and a stalemate in their last three league games underline a thin attacking output and defensive frailty, which weakens their chance of securing a win here.
Levante
Levante’s recent away form includes a 1‑2 loss to Real Betis and a 0‑3 defeat to Espanyol, followed by a goalless draw with Osasuna away. Only one of those three away fixtures produced a goal, highlighting their difficulty in scoring on the road, yet the 5‑2 home win over Real Betis shows they can explode when the odds are right, supporting a win prospect in this match.
Head-to-Head
The head‑to‑head record favours Levante, with a 4‑2 win in November 2024 and a 1‑0 victory in December 2022, while the most recent meeting was a 1‑1 draw in February 2025. These results demonstrate Levante’s recent superiority in this fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2025 | Malaga 1-1 Levante | Segunda División |
| 27 Nov 2024 | Levante 4-2 Malaga | Segunda División |
| 17 Mar 2023 | Malaga 0-0 Levante | Segunda División |
| 4 Dec 2022 | Levante 1-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| 19 Apr 2018 | Levante 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Malaga: F. Calero (Ribs Injury), M. Diarra (Calf Injury), D. Murillo (Injury), A. Nino (Injury)
Levante: A. Primo (Shoulder Injury), R. Brugue (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Malaga vs Levante?
Malaga and Levante drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Levante to win.
What was the final score of Malaga vs Levante?
Malaga 0-0 Levante (full time).
When was Malaga vs Levante?
Malaga played Levante on Sun 6 Sep · 17:30 BST in the La Liga at Estadio La Rosaleda.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →Given Levante’s superior away scoring rate and the modest goal expectations on both sides, the most compelling read is a Levante victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
