Mariehamn vs Turku PS: Turku PS to win
Mariehamn host Turku PS in a Veikkausliiga clash where both sides average under a goal per game. The model assigns Turku a 35.8% win chance versus 30.2% for the hosts, with an under‑2.5‑goals outlook at 75.7%.
Both clubs have been inconsistent: Mariehamn have turned a poor start (LL) into three straight wins, while Turku PS have slipped to three draws in their last five. Historically the fixture has produced more stalemates than wins, with three draws and two Turku victories in the last five meetings.
Lars's Verdict
Turku’s 35.8% win probability and superior away xG (0.9 vs 0.8) make them the slight favorite, especially after a 3‑0 home win over Mariehamn earlier in the season.
Show the maths
With Mariehamn averaging 0.8 expected goals and Turku PS averaging 0.9, the model gives a 67.3% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 32.7% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 1.7 (Mariehamn 0.8 + Turku PS 0.9) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 75.7% chance against 24.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Mariehamn at 30.2%, the draw at 34.0%, and Turku PS at 35.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 18.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Mariehamn
Mariehamn's recent run includes a 0‑3 loss to Turku PS (away) and a 2‑0 win over SJK (home), showing they can bounce back after heavy defeats. The 4‑2 away victory over KuPS and the 2‑0 home win over FF Jaro further highlight an upward trend, indicating they are capable of scoring but also vulnerable at the back – a factor that supports a Turku win.
Turku PS
Turku PS opened the season with a 3‑0 home win over Mariehamn and later earned a 0‑0 home draw against Inter Turku, demonstrating they can keep a clean sheet. Their recent 1‑1 away draw with Gnistan and 1‑1 away draw with KuPS show they are comfortable sharing points, but the earlier 3‑0 win underlines a capacity to dominate when needed – bolstering the win pick.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Turku PS have won twice (3‑0 in 2026‑08‑01 and 1‑3 in 2024‑03‑22) and drawn three times (1‑1 in 2026‑04‑04 and 2026‑02‑11, and 2‑2 in 2025‑05‑28), indicating a slight historical edge for Turku that aligns with the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | Turku PS 3-0 Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| 4 Apr 2026 | Mariehamn 1-1 Turku PS | Veikkausliiga |
| 11 Feb 2026 | Mariehamn 1-1 Turku PS | League Cup |
| 28 May 2025 | Mariehamn 2-2 Turku PS | Suomen Cup |
| 22 Mar 2024 | Mariehamn 1-3 Turku PS | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Mariehamn vs Turku PS?
Mariehamn won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Turku PS to win.
What was the final score of Mariehamn vs Turku PS?
Mariehamn 1-0 Turku PS (full time).
When was Mariehamn vs Turku PS?
Mariehamn played Turku PS on Sat 12 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Veikkausliiga at TBC.
More Veikkausliiga This Week
See all Veikkausliiga fixtures →Given Turku’s marginally higher scoring rate, slightly tighter defence, and a better overall win probability, the most logical read is a Turku victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
