Marine vs Warrington Town: Marine to win
Marine enter the FA Cup tie with a 3.0 expected‑goals rate against Warrington Town’s 2.0. The model rates a Marine win at 58.1%, the clearest probability across all markets.
Both clubs have been busy in their domestic leagues, but Marine’s single recent league win – a 3‑2 home victory over Radcliffe – gives them momentum heading into the cup. Warrington Town’s mixed recent form includes a 2‑2 draw away at Shildon AFC and a 4‑0 home win over the same side.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 58.1% win probability, backed by Marine’s superior expected goals and recent home victory, makes a Marine win the most likely outcome.
Show the maths
With Marine averaging 3.0 expected goals and Warrington Town averaging 2.0, the model gives a 81.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 18.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 5.0 (Marine 3.0 + Warrington Town 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 87.1% chance against 12.9% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Marine at 58.1%, the draw at 16.8%, and Warrington Town at 24.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 6.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Marine
Marine’s latest league result was a 3‑2 home win over Radcliffe, showing they can both score and concede three goals in a match. That single win lifts their recent form rating to a win, reinforcing the model’s confidence in their ability to find the net against Warrington Town.
Warrington Town
Warrington Town drew 2‑2 away at Shildon AFC before blasting them 4‑0 at home, indicating a capacity to score but also a vulnerability to concede. Their overall recent form of DWW reflects inconsistency, which undercuts their chances against a higher‑scoring Marine side.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Marine have won three, including a 2‑1 victory on 28 July 2026 and a 1‑0 win on 18 April 2025. This head‑to‑head dominance supports the expectation of a Marine win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | Marine 2-1 Warrington Town | Friendlies Clubs |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Marine 1-0 Warrington Town | National League - North |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Warrington Town 0-2 Marine | National League - North |
| 10 Apr 2023 | Marine 1-2 Warrington Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 26 Dec 2022 | Warrington Town 0-0 Marine | Non League Premier - Northern |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Marine vs Warrington Town?
Marine to win. The model’s 58.1% win probability, backed by Marine’s superior expected goals and recent home victory, makes a Marine win the most likely outcome.
What does the model give Marine vs Warrington Town?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Marine a 58.1% chance, the draw 16.8%, and Warrington Town 24.7% to win.
When is Marine vs Warrington Town?
Marine play Warrington Town on Sat 3 Oct · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →With a solid home record, a higher xG output and a clear historical superiority, Marine are the logical choice to progress.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
