Maritimo vs Academico Viseu: Academico Viseu to win
Academico Viseu arrive as clear favourites, with a 60.5% win probability against Maritimo's 18.3% in our model. The visitors' 2.0 expected goals outpace the hosts' 1.0, hinting at a goal‑rich encounter.
Both sides come into the match with contrasting recent form – Maritimo have only a solitary win in their last five, while Academico Viseu have stumbled with a loss and a draw. The disparity in expected goals and the model's win percentages set the stage for a decisive away performance.
Lars's Verdict
With a 60.5% model probability and a superior expected‑goals rate, Viseu should secure three points in this fixture.
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With Maritimo averaging 1.0 expected goals and Academico Viseu averaging 2.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Maritimo 1.0 + Academico Viseu 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Maritimo at 18.3%, the draw at 21.2%, and Academico Viseu at 60.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Maritimo
Maritimo's recent form is limited to a 1‑0 home win over Casa Pia, their only result in the last five matches. That solitary victory, coupled with a zero goals‑against average at home, suggests they are defensively solid but lack attacking firepower, which weakens their chances of securing a win here.
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu drew 2‑2 away at Benfica before falling 0‑1 at home to Santa Clara, giving them a loss and a draw in their last two fixtures. The high‑scoring draw demonstrates their ability to score, while the narrow defeat shows they can be vulnerable, but overall the recent goal output backs a win.
Head-to-Head
In the latest meeting on 1 March 2026, Viseu beat Maritimo 3‑1, and the overall head‑to‑head record includes a recent 2‑2 draw, favouring the visitors and aligning with the model’s win forecast.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | Academico Viseu 3-1 Maritimo | Segunda Liga |
| 3 Oct 2025 | Maritimo 2-2 Academico Viseu | Segunda Liga |
| 9 Mar 2025 | Maritimo 1-1 Academico Viseu | Segunda Liga |
| 13 Oct 2024 | Academico Viseu 0-2 Maritimo | Segunda Liga |
| 19 May 2024 | Academico Viseu 2-2 Maritimo | Segunda Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Maritimo vs Academico Viseu?
Maritimo and Academico Viseu drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Academico Viseu to win.
What was the final score of Maritimo vs Academico Viseu?
Maritimo 2-2 Academico Viseu (full time).
When was Maritimo vs Academico Viseu?
Maritimo played Academico Viseu on Sat 22 Aug · 15:30 BST in the Primeira Liga at TBC.
More Primeira Liga This Week
See all Primeira Liga fixtures →All indicators point to the visitors imposing themselves, making a straight win the most logical selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
