Maritimo vs Benfica: Benfica to win
Benfica arrive in Funchal with a 7.0 xG away average against a Maritimo side that has only 1.5 xG at home. The model gives Benfica a 69.4% chance to win, making a straight win pick the most one‑sided market.
Both teams come into the clash after mixed recent form – Maritimo with two wins, a draw and a loss in their last four league outings, and Benfica with a draw and a dominant 7‑0 win on the road. The contrast in recent results underscores the gulf in quality that the numbers already reveal.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Benfica a 69.4% chance to win, reflecting their superior xG and the consistent away dominance shown in recent results.
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With Maritimo averaging 1.5 expected goals and Benfica averaging 7.0, the model gives a 56.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 43.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 8.5 (Maritimo 1.5 + Benfica 7.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 72.0% chance against 28.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Maritimo at 1.4%, the draw at 2.1%, and Benfica at 69.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-6 at 5.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Maritimo
Maritimo have recorded two wins (1‑0 vs Casa Pia at home, 2‑1 vs Famalicao away), a draw (2‑2 vs Academico Viseu at home) and a loss (1‑2 vs Arouca away) in their last four league games. The mix of a solid home win and a recent loss shows they can score but struggle against stronger opposition, which undercuts their chance against a high‑scoring Benfica.
Benfica
Benfica’s last two league results are a 2‑2 home draw with Academico Viseu and an emphatic 7‑0 away win over Casa Pia. The draw shows they can be vulnerable, but the seven‑goal outburst demonstrates the firepower they carry into this match, reinforcing the win expectation.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Benfica have won all matches, with scorelines like 5‑0 (2022) and 7‑1 (2021), confirming a clear historical dominance that aligns with the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2023 | Maritimo 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 18 Sep 2022 | Benfica 5-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Maritimo 0-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 19 Dec 2021 | Benfica 7-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 5 Apr 2021 | Benfica 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Maritimo vs Benfica?
Benfica won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Benfica to win.
What was the final score of Maritimo vs Benfica?
Maritimo 0-3 Benfica (full time).
When was Maritimo vs Benfica?
Maritimo played Benfica on Sat 5 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Primeira Liga at TBC.
More Primeira Liga This Week
See all Primeira Liga fixtures →Given the clear statistical edge and the historical dominance of Benfica in recent head‑to‑head meetings, the logical conclusion is a Benfica victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
