Mirassol vs Botafogo: Mirassol to win
Mirassol's 1.4 expected goals and a 39.4% win probability give them the edge over Botafogo, whose away expected goals sit at 1.3. The model also points to a tight match with both sides likely to find the net.
Both clubs enter this Serie A clash with contrasting recent runs – Mirassol has steadied after a shaky spell, while Botafogo has struggled to convert chances on the road. The fixture pits Mirassol's modest home scoring record against a Botafogo side that has failed to score more than three goals in its last five away outings.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns Mirassol a 39.4% chance to win, the highest single-outcome probability among the three results.
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With Mirassol averaging 1.4 expected goals and Botafogo averaging 1.3, the model gives a 54.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Mirassol 1.4 + Botafogo 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Mirassol at 39.4%, the draw at 25.8%, and Botafogo at 34.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Mirassol
Mirassol's last five league results (DDLWD) include a 2‑1 away win over Coritiba and a 2‑2 home draw with Vitoria, showing they can both score and hold on. The earlier 0‑2 loss to Flamengo indicates vulnerability, but the recent win and draws suggest a team capable of edging out a narrow victory at home.
Botafogo
Botafogo's recent five matches (LLLDD) feature three straight defeats – 0‑1 to Vitoria, 2‑3 to Atletico Paranaense, and 0‑3 to Flamengo – before two 0‑0 and 1‑1 draws. Scoring three goals across those games highlights a limited attack, and the string of losses points to a side struggling to secure points away.
Head-to-Head
In the three most recent meetings, Botafogo won 3‑2 in April 2026, while the other two fixtures ended in draws (0‑0 in November 2025 and 3‑3 in September 2025). The head‑to‑head record is balanced, offering no clear advantage to either side for this pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2026 | Botafogo 3-2 Mirassol | Serie A |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Mirassol 0-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Botafogo 3-3 Mirassol | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Mirassol: Denilson (Yellow Cards), Edson Carioca (Injury), Joao Victor (Yellow Cards), Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury)
Botafogo: Arthur Cabral (Yellow Cards), J. Barrera (Injury), Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury), Matheus Martins (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Mirassol vs Botafogo?
Mirassol won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Mirassol to win.
What was the final score of Mirassol vs Botafogo?
Mirassol 2-0 Botafogo (full time).
When was Mirassol vs Botafogo?
Mirassol played Botafogo on Sat 19 Sep · 21:00 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the slight xG advantage and Mirassol's more positive recent results, the model leans toward a home victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
